To ask the Scottish Executive what its estimate is of a shortage or over-supply of (a) teachers, (b) doctors, (c) dentists, (d) nurses, (e) veterinary surgeons, (f) chiropodists and podiatrists, (g) physiotherapists and (h) social workers.
Supply and demand of staff in these professional groups is complex and many factors contribute to dynamic fluctuations in numbers. Measureable indicators, such as vacancy rates can be suggestive of either staff shortage or excess but alone can be misleading. Workforce planning arrangements (as asked in related question S3W-15835, answered on 24 September 2008) differ for each of these staff groups.
Teachers: Currently the supply and demand is of teachers by the annual teacher workforce planning exercise which is undertaken at a national level to ensure there are sufficient numbers of teachers in publicly funded schools. The exercise takes account of pupil projections and numbers of teachers leaving and entering the profession. The current aim is to maintain teacher numbers at approximately 53,000, bearing in mind currently 6,000 teachers per annum are expected to leave teaching each year for the next few years. A Teacher Employment Working Group has been established which will assess the teacher workforce planning process, as inherited by the previous administration. The group will report to Ministers in autumn 2008.
The Scottish Government carries out a teacher vacancy assessment each February. The latest survey in February 2008 shows that only 0.4% of the full complement of teaching posts was vacant over three months. Vacancies over three months are usually taken as an indicator of teacher shortage as it discounts the normal turnover of staff, this indicates there is no shortage at present.
Doctors and nurses: Workforce planning for doctors and nurses (and other health care professionals) is set out in the National Workforce Planning Framework which is available at the following link http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2005/08/30112522/25230.
Modelling for the doctor and nurse professions is currently underway however, as this will not be finalised until November it is not possible at this time to estimate the shortage or over-supply. Workforce details for NHSScotland are published on the Scottish health statistics website under Workforce Statistics at:
www.isdscotland.org/workforce.
Robust workforce planning arrangements are in place to ensure there are sufficient numbers of healthcare workers to meet health care demand. NHS boards work to an annual planning cycle, publishing new workforce plans in April of each year. Regional Workforce Plans are published each September. NHS board and Regional plans inform the National Workforce Plan published each December.
Dentists: The number of NHS dentists in Scotland has increased by over 25% between 1996 and 2007. Dental Workforce planning in Scotland is informed by work undertaken by the Dental Workforce Project, an on-going collaboration between NHS Education for Scotland (NES) and the Information Services Division (ISD) Scotland and supported by the Scottish Government''s National Workforce Planning Unit. The Project, which examines supply and demand forecasts for NHS dentists in Scotland, publishes its next report on 25 September 2008. It is expected to report good progress with respect to workforce targets.
Veterinary surgeons: The vet profession is a reserved area. The Scottish Government does not undertake workforce planning for the vet profession as this is principally a matter for the Royal College of Veterinary surgeons and the UK University funding councils. Whilst government pays a number of veterinarians the number of vets is principally a commercial matter.
Chiropodists/Podiatrists: There is no confirmed current over or under-supply of chiropodists/podiatrists. Vacancy rates are low at 1.6% for vacancies over three months, indicating adequate supply.
Physiotherapists: Current workforce statistics indicate a steady increase in the number of qualified physiotherapists in post in NHSScotland. Latest available NHS board workforce planning projects an 6.9% increased demand for physiotherapists over the next three years with possible over-supply of junior practitioners.
Training numbers however, for Allied Health Professions, such as chiropodists/podiatrists and physiotherapists are not controlled centrally (as for medical and nursing undergraduate places). In the non-controlled subjects there is a market place economy with Universities responding to demand from students for places rather than demand from employers. However, there is continuing dialogue with the Scottish Funding Council and higher education institutions to inform them of forecast demand. In addition, it is for NHS boards to decide the number and skill mix of staff needed to deliver services in their area.
Social workers: While there is no specific estimate of shortage or over-supply, the current vacancy rate for local authority social workers is a relatively high 7.4% (399 vacancies). Although vacancies have decreased from a high of 13% in 2003, this indicates a continuing demand for social workers. Social work student numbers are increasing however and will ensure a steady supply of new social workers coming into the profession. The Scottish Government continues to work with its partners to monitor and predict demand for social work services and also the supply of new social workers, as well as monitoring current employment and vacancy levels in the sector. The Scottish Government is currently working with COSLA to consider how the workforce planning function at employer level can be promoted.
All answers to written parliamentary questions are available on the Parliament''s website, the search facility for which can be found at http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/webapp/wa.search.