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The Scottish Government fully recognise the seriousness of the ongoing cost of living crisis and, through the emergency Cost of Living (Tenant Protection) (Scotland) Act, are helping tenants, who we know are at risk of being financially vulnerable and less able to absorb the impacts of the current cost of living crisis. The emergency measures include a 3% cap on applicable in-tenancy rent increases and stronger protections against eviction.

Annex F of the Statement of Reasons for the 2nd proposed extension of the Act provides analysis of mortgage rate rises for private sector landlords in the context of this emergency legislation. While this does not correlate to increases in rents, it does reflect the potential increases in costs that some landlords may be facing which could influence how landlords with Buy to Let mortgages set rents.

The emergency Act is giving important support to tenants, providing them with much-needed stability in their housing costs. It has gone further than anywhere else in the UK in helping protect tenants across the rental sector.

While the focus of the emergency legislation is to protect tenants, the Scottish Government recognises that some landlords may also be facing pressures from this cost crisis. That is why the Scottish Government has built in a number of safeguards that allow for consideration of landlords’ circumstances. The measures will be kept under review and the Scottish Government will work with the private rented sector to understand the impact.

Forecasts for the Scottish economy are produced by the independent Scottish Fiscal Commission. They published their most recent forecast in May 2023.

The Scottish Government has not made any formal assessment of the impact of increased mortgage rates on the Scottish economy. However, the Scottish Government regularly monitors trends in mortgage rates and the level of mortgage lending through the quarterly Scottish Housing Market Review , and also monitors trends in economic activity, which is affected by mortgage and other interest rates, through the monthly Economic Brief .

The Scottish Government has recently conducted an evidence review on the impact of the wider cost of living crisis on low income households with children. A part of the report includes a section on housing which briefly summarises the impact of higher mortgage costs for families on low incomes.

There are currently no planned funding rounds for the Just Transition Fund in 2023-24.

In addition to the Fund’s £50 million multi-year capital programme announced for the region in 2022, we have allocated £25 million to the Scottish National Investment Bank for 2023-24, to be invested by the Bank, on a commercial basis and in line with its Investment Strategy and its missions including to support a just transition to net zero. For further details, businesses, projects and their representatives can contact the Bank via its website, where the Bank’s new enquiries team will handle the approach - Contact | Scottish National Investment Bank (thebank.scot)

Official statistics on poverty rates in Scotland come from the Family Resources Survey. This is a sample survey which does not allow breakdowns at a sub-Scotland level.

However, the Department for Work and Pensions publish children in low income families local area statistics which are available at local authority level. These statistics are based on linked DWP/HMRC data on benefits and tax credits and are before housing costs. There are also estimates published by the End Child Poverty Coalition which model the impacts of housing costs on the child poverty rates produced by DWP. On both these measures for 2021-22, Aberdeen City is among the 10 local authorities with the lowest proportion of children in low income families.

There are a range of assessments made using various data sources to inform local and regional economic development and funding, as well as action to alleviate poverty. For instance, the Scottish Government established an independent Advisory Group on Economic Recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The group’s report covered a wide range of indicators at local authority level including the business base, existing deprivation and income levels, digital connectivity and productivity.

Subsequently, the Scottish Government published the Wellbeing Economy Monitor which brings together a range of indicators to provide a baseline for assessing progress towards the development of a wellbeing economy in Scotland. A wellbeing economy toolkit has been developed to support decision making and prioritisation of economic interventions and facilitate the transition to local and regional wellbeing economies, including a local authority level wellbeing economy monitor. This includes child poverty estimates, along with other social, environmental and economic indicators.

The Scottish Government has not had discussions with the UK Government on this issue.

The Scottish Government is in discussion with the DWP about the proposed reforms set out in the Health and Disability White Paper published by the UK Government on 15 March, including to ensure that people in receipt of Scottish disability benefits are not disadvantaged in any way as a result of those reforms.

We are aware of concerns that have been raised about how the current operation of reserved benefits impacts upon learning disabled, autistic and neurodiverse people in Scotland going into training and employment and have set up the Scottish Access to Work Stakeholder Forum, led by the Glasgow Centre for Inclusive Living, to support discussion with DWP on these matters.

I refer the member to the answer to question S6W-19512 on 17 July 2023. All answers to written parliamentary questions are available on the Parliament’s website, the search facility for which can be found at https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/written-questions-and-answers

The Scottish Government is working to improve opportunities and choices to work for autistic people and people with learning disabilities through Towards Transformation , our autism and learning disability plan, published in March 2021. As stated in this plan, the Scottish Government will continue to work towards our ambition to at least halve the disability employment gap by 2038 (from the 2016 baseline of 37.4 percentage points), in conjunction with work being delivered through our Fair Work action plan: becoming a leading Fair Work nation by 2025 , published in December 2022. The plan takes forward the current work to support more disabled people, including those with a learning disability autistic people and neurodivergent people, into fair work.

Our employability support, delivered through Fair Start Scotland and No One Left Behind, prioritises those who face complex barriers to accessing the labour market.

We are delivering support that is person centred, tailored and responsive to the needs of the individual. This includes bespoke key worker support, as well as peer support groups and referrals to specialist partners which can offer enhanced support to people who are autistic, learning disabled or neurodivergent.

Our approach to employability support is also consistent with the Supported Employment Framework for Scotland, currently delivered through Fair Start Scotland. The Framework lays out the five-step approach to supported employment, recognising it as "an employment first approach", which focuses on positive outcomes for individuals.

In 2023-24 we are investing up to £108m for employability support to ensure those who require additional support has access to employability services that will help them towards and into sustainable employment.

The latest statistics published on 22 February 2023, covering the period April 2018 to December 2022, shows there were 54,030 starts on Fair Start Scotland and 18,819 job starts. Of these starts, 24,067 (45%) reported having a disability, 3,825 (7%) reported a learning difficulty, 1,679 (3%) a developmental disorder such as Autism Spectrum Disorder or Asperger’s Syndrome and 524 (1%) a learning disability such as Down’s Syndrome.

While we do not refer to the specific category of neurodiverse, the percentage of participants with developmental disorders moving into work is largely in line with the percentage of overall participants moving into work. Overall, 37% (15,512 of participants) have started in employment, compared to 34% (448 participants) of those with a developmental disorder starting employment.

From October 2022, a new data template co-designed with Local Authorities and aligned to the Shared Measurement Framework has been in place. Over time the statistics available for No One Left Behind will reflect this new information, including more detailed breakdowns on types of conditions such as learning disability, learning difficulty, autism spectrum and other developmental disorder, as well as further progression information.

No formal assessment has been carried out on the impact of increased mortgage rates on First Time Buyers (FTB’s), however we are aware that an increase in mortgage rates will make it more difficult for many FTB’s to obtain mortgage lending or in fact access it due to a decreased number of products available.

The latest data suggests a slowdown in housing market activity for first-time buyers, with mortgage advances falling to 5,520 in Q1 2023, this is 8% lower than the pre-pandemic baseline. This is potentially due to successive increases in the Bank Rate since December 2021.

We continue to support home ownership and have interventions in place to help first time buyers through our Low Cost Initiative for First-Time Buyers (LIFT) scheme which helps people on low to moderate incomes to buy their first home.

Our first-time buyer relief for Land and Buildings Transaction Tax has the effect of raising the nil-rate threshold from £145,000 to £175,000, saving first-time buyers up to £600.

While application numbers to our schemes have yet to show a decline we anticipate that the current mortgage market conditions will make delivery of our schemes more challenging.

The Scottish Government’s Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) Gateway was involved in managing the statutory correspondence between Aberdeen City Council and the consultation authorities (Scottish Environment Protection Agency), NautreScot and Historic Environment Scotland) for Aberdeen’s Beachfront Development Framework as required by the Environmental Assessment (Scotland) Act 2005.

The Scottish Government is committed to supporting local communities through city regeneration projects such as the Aberdeen beachfront regeneration and will work with Aberdeen City Council and other partners as they take forward its regeneration.

The Scottish Government welcomes the Our Union Street white paper and the range of ideas it captures.

The Scottish Government recognises that our cities and towns are a national asset and is pleased to see that many of the aims in the Our Union Street white paper align with aims of National Planning Framework 4.

The Scottish Government would encourage Our Union Street, as it progresses, to consider entering its achievements into the government’s new Scottish Planning Innovation Awards in the future.