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The Scottish Government routinely analyses data related to the labour market. The link between waiting times and the economy is most frequently viewed through economic inactivity due to ill-health. A 2024 Scottish Parliament Information Centre briefing, for example, examined Annual Population Survey responses alongside Accident and Emergency (A&E) performance in Scotland. They found that the correlation between A&E performance and economic inactivity due to ill health was very low but statistically significant. Similarly, the Office for Budget Responsibility in 2023 found that “the rising NHS waiting list itself is unlikely to have been a significant driver of rising inactivity due to long-term sickness in recent years”.

We are looking closely at how our health system can better support people to stay healthy in work and move back in to work, alongside actions which can be taken by government, employers and individuals.

The Programme for Government sets out action we will take in health to address the challenges faced by those who are economically inactive, and to support those at risk of becoming economically inactive. This includes:

• Creating a single point of access through Healthy Working Lives for employers and workers to access advice and support, with ongoing improvements to the site’s accessibility and navigation.
• Free NHS case management support, available through Working Health Services Scotland, is available to employees and employers, focusing on small to medium size businesses. As of January 2025, within existing budget, we have been able to expand this service to 8am – 8pm Monday to Friday with early indications showing healthy demand for these extended hours (between 80-90% of appt slots filled).
• Continued support for the Healthy Working Lives’ online platform to help employers build mentally healthy workplaces, and delivery of the Mentally Healthy Workplaces network for employers.

We are also developing a new heath and work action plan, with engagement currently taking place cross-government.

Ministers approved recommendations in July 2024 to maximise the effect of existing service provision across fair work and employability, health and local service delivery to reduce the risk of people leaving the labour market due to ill health.

Our evidence review, published September 2024, examines the evidence on supporting those with longer-term conditions and disabilities to remain in work. Its focus is on the upstream prevention of economic inactivity to ensure the protective factors for health that good work provides.

The action plan, due for Summer 2025, will reflect both the priorities of the Programme for Government and the longer-term system changes noted in the forthcoming Population Health Framework and will focus on enabling those wanting to work to enter, thrive and remain in the workforce and to tackle Scotland’s increasing rates of economic inactivity due to ill health.

Recognising reserved powers and our own levers within the Scottish Government, the plan will bring together health, mental health, employability services, social security, business representative organisations, the UK government and other organisations established in the delivery of healthy, safe and fair work.

The Scottish Government published analysis of the impact of the Scottish Child Payment (SCP) on Scotland’s labour market in July 2024; Scottish Child Payment and the labour market - gov.scot and concluded it had not negatively affected labour market outcomes at scale in Scotland’s economy, while supporting the families of nearly 330,000 children.

Our analysis shows that typically around 2% of Scottish households in receipt of Universal Credit (UC) with children aged under 16 have low monthly UC awards of less than £100. This suggests very few families experience the high effective marginal tax rates that can be present when low UC awards and therefore SCP are close to being withdrawn due to the earnings of a household.

The Scottish Government continues to assess how SCP is interacting with the labour market. A further evaluation of SCP is due to be published this summer and will include a survey of recipients including questions about how and why SCP has affected their labour market activity.

With respect to the use of e-consultations and telephone triage, while the Scottish Government sets the strategic direction, it is for Health Boards to plan their services based on local need. What is most important is appointments are agreed through shared decision making, balancing patient choice and clinical judgement. We continue to engage with stakeholders in support of service delivery.

NHS Boards are responsible for the management of their administrative assets and for identifying restructuring requirements. Any such costs would be met from Boards’ delegated budgets.

The Scottish Government is committed to the sustainability of frontline GP services and has increased the budget for General Medical Services by more than £227 million since 2020-21.

The Fraser of Allander Institute said in an article, published on 26 March, that “we'll have to wait until the OBR has been able to look at the whole policy package in aggregate before we understand the full scale of the impact both on the UK and Scotland”.

The Scottish Government is actively considering the role of AI in schools. Discussions have been ongoing with key partners including the SQA, Education Scotland, local authorities, the Scottish AI Alliance and academics, to ensure that AI can be used effectively and safely in learning and teaching.

In addition, we are undertaking an education-based project via the Scottish Government’s technology accelerator programme, CivTech. The project seeks to use AI and technology to streamline administrative tasks for teachers and contribute to a reduction in workload. The project is currently in early development.

Following the recent International Summit on the Teaching Profession, we have committed to consider carefully the guidance produced by the OECD and Education International, and to create an equivalent set of guidelines and guardrails for the Scottish context. We will do this through a partnership approach, liaising with local government and teachers’ representatives.

In addition, it is anticipated that the Curriculum Improvement Cycle will examine the skills, knowledge and understanding that children and young people will be required to develop in respect of AI.

Statistics on more able pupil as a reason for support are published in the pupil census supplementary statistics. This is available on the Scottish government website here https://www.gov.scot/publications/pupil-census-supplementary-statistics/.

Local authorities oversee the delivery of education and have a statutory duty to identify, provide for, and to review the support that they provide for pupils with additional support needs, including more able pupils.

Public Health Scotland (PHS) publishes statistics on the length of time patients wait to be seen as a new outpatient or admitted for treatment as an inpatient or day case in the Stage of Treatment (SoT) publication. The latest publication release contains data up to quarter ending 31 December 2024.

Table 1 presents the latest available statistics on the total number of attendances and admissions for patients who had waited over a year (52 weeks) as a new outpatient or an inpatient or day case. The following data are presented at NHS Scotland level for all specialties, broken down by calendar year and split by new outpatient and inpatient or day case.

Table 1 – Total number of attendances as a new outpatient and admissions as an inpatient or day case for patients who had waited over a year (52 weeks), NHS Scotland, all specialty level, by calendar year from 2020 to present.

Some Health Boards are already delivering additional activity 7 days a week, 12 hours a day, to help people get diagnostic tests they need. Since 2021, we have provided three permanent CT scanners to support core diagnostic imaging capacity within Boards, including a mobile CT pod which is deployed flexibly to Boards that require additional capacity. In addition, four further mobile CTs and thirteen mobile MRI scanners are being used across multiple NHS Boards to provide additional capacity.

Additional funding provided through the £200 million investment contained in the Budget to reduce waiting times and improve flow through hospital, will support further reductions to the radiology backlog so that 95% of referrals are seen within six weeks by March 2026.

There is currently no digital outpatient system in development at a national level, although the online app for health & social care, which is being developed as part of our Digital Front Door Programme, will provide digital access to outpatient appointments. More details can be found in the NHS Scotland Operational Improvement Plan, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/nhs-scotland-operational-improvement-plan/pages/5/.

I have asked Alison Byrne, Chief Executive of NRS to respond. Her response is the National Population Projections (NPPs) for Scotland are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on behalf of National Records of Scotland (NRS). They are based on assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality and migration. The latest set are 2022-based and were published on 28 January. Projections are typically produced every 2 years.

The assumptions are developed by analysing trends in past and current data and taking into account advice from NPP Expert Advisory Panels, devolved administrations and, in the case of mortality assumptions, the Government Actuary’s Department (GAD).

The ONS produce a principal projection and a number of variant projections based on alternative assumptions. The information referred to below relates to the principal projection. Equivalent information for variant projections is also available from the ONS website.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children that a group of women would expect to have if they experienced the observed age specific fertility rates in each of their childbearing years. Projected total fertility rates (TFR) can be found in Table 1 of the Scotland summary tables. Between 2025 and 2075 these are projected to vary between 1.26 and 1.29. This compares to a TFR of 1.30 in 2023.

The same table also provides figures for Expectation of Life at Birth (EOLB) which are based on assumed projected mortality rates. EOLB is projected to rise to 83.3 years for males and 86.6 years for females by 2075. The more detailed information on the projected mortality rates on which these are based can be found in the mortality assumptions sheet within the machine readable dataset.

Projected mortality rates are based on an assumed long-term rate of annual mortality improvement in 2047 of 1.1% for ages 0 to 90 years. Mortality rates are assumed to converge to this long-term level of improvement over the first 25 years of the projection.