Seòmar agus comataidhean

Let us look at the reality of the college sector’s finances. You said that eight out of 10 colleges are forecast to report a deficit. When might that take place, and what happens when a college reports a deficit? How would they be able to sign off accounts and what governance issues would they face? If a business was in that position, it would be unsustainable—it would close down. Is there a risk that some colleges could close?

You made a number of recommendations. What is your principal or most important recommendation on how we get the sector back on its feet?

This is not a new problem. I sat on the Education and Skills Committee five years ago and the college sector then was crying out for cash and warning of job cuts, course cuts and fewer students, with the negative outcomes that that would have for society and the Scottish economy. Here we are today and I am afraid that the proof is in the pudding in your briefing today. Something has to give. Colleges Scotland calls it a “fork in the road”. Of the recommendations that you have made, what do you consider that the Scottish Government should focus on first?

Thank you very much. I will pick up on something that you just said that I find very interesting. That figure of £770 million is, of course, based on a number of assumptions, but it also assumes that the status quo will continue for the next five years and does not take into account the Government’s response to any of your recommendations. Therefore the obvious question is this. If, in an ideal world, from your point of view, the Government accepted and implemented all your recommendations, would that figure of £770 million go up or down?

That is helpful. Thank you.

The system sure is complex. In relation to the workforce, which I will ask about in a moment, I was quite struck by exhibit 8, which shows that somebody who works in social care or the care sector faces 60 different—and sometimes competing—pieces of legislation and policies. That is a complex landscape for somebody on the front line, who might be dealing with very difficult situations, to navigate simply in order to do their day job. That is testament to those staff. That was a statement rather than a question for you, Auditor General.

You go into great detail on the whole family wellbeing fund. What is the situation? Four or five years ago, the Government announced a dedicated £500 million—£0.5 billion—to deliver the Promise. That is a substantial amount of money. You say that the Scottish Government “introduced”—that is your terminology—£0.5 billion. I do not know what “introduced” means. Does it mean that the Government spent, made available or delivered that money? In the next paragraph, you say that, to date, only £148 million of that funding has been committed in budgets or is visible in budgets, so there is £352 million that has not been spent or simply does not exist. Do we know why that is the case?

I presume that those are questions for ministers, which we can rightly ask in our own way.

We will do so. If that funding was for this session of Parliament, which ends in six months, there are no guarantees that the £350 million will be available to future Governments and Parliaments, which is a concern.

Linked to the issue of resource is that of people. The report is excellent in highlighting some of the challenges facing the workforce in social care and the care sector. Two statistics jump out at me as the most worrying, because we need people to deliver the services. One is that there is a 10 per cent vacancy rate for social workers. I do not know whether that is good, bad or indifferent in the bigger picture of health and social care. More importantly, a similar proportion—13 per cent—of social workers are very likely to leave the job in the next 12 months. It is not that they will maybe leave or are considering it because they are a bit stressed or overworked. They have clearly been questioned by their employers, unions or third parties and have said that they are very likely to leave. We must assume that that is a fairly accurate figure.

Where did you get those numbers? How concerning are they?

They are very concerning. I would be concerned about any public sector area where four in 10 people felt unsafe in their place of work. That is a shocking statistic, and, given those circumstances, it is no wonder that people are considering leaving the profession—I am surprised that it is only 13 per cent, as it would be a lot higher in any other business. Those people are clearly passionate, love what they do and do not want to give up, but that is a real concern.

I will sum all this up. The Accounts Commission and Audit Scotland have done intensive work in producing the report and highlighting the issues, and it has rightly received a huge amount of media coverage over the past month. Based on your professional judgment, is it Audit Scotland’s position that, by 2030, the Promise will be delivered? Alternatively, is there a risk that the Promise will be broken for some or all care-experienced young people?

Might you revisit the issue in coming years to follow and track progress?

Thank you.