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Specifically and in comparison, is it possible to quantify that underperformance in numerical terms?

I suspect that one of the biggest areas of interest, and perhaps concern, on the part not just of the committee but of the Government relates to the effect of tax divergence—Scotland having differential rates compared with the rest of the UK.

You state that, broadly, historically speaking, there has been little divergence, but that it has increased for this tax year and that it might increase in future tax years. The known unknown is what effect that will have on people’s behaviour and how it will affect the tax base and the resulting tax take.

What work has Audit Scotland or the NAO done on understanding how any such behavioural impact will affect the final outturn numbers? What are the risks? How high or low are they?

We know what some of the risks are, as they are well documented and are talked about often. However, quantifying those risks will be difficult until we see what people start doing with their money. Let us take, for example, the scenario of a person who earns £50,000. Such a person would pay 20 per cent more tax in Scotland than they would do elsewhere in the UK, which is a substantial difference. The number of people who are affected in that way must be easy to find out, but it might be more difficult to forecast what they might do. I guess that that is part of the problem. One presumes that, if there is a huge shift in behaviour, that will affect future budgets and how much money is available to the Government. Is that fair to say? Is that a risk in how we forecast budgets?

Thank you, convener, and good morning, colleagues. I have no relevant interests to declare.

Thank you. I, too, look forward to it.

I will perhaps come on to that volatility. Your opening comments—repeated in the opening paragraphs of your report—gave quite a broad-brush overview in using phrases such as “continuing economic uncertainty”, “tax policy divergence”, “weaker economic performance”, and so on. Those are quite generic terms. What specific work has Audit Scotland done on the root causes of why that figure of £390 million was so vast?

Perhaps this is a question for Police Scotland and the Crown Office. I do not want to get into specifics, because that would be unfair on individuals and their families. Have any patterns emerged? For example, is there a pattern of people having identified as being in a position of severe trauma, such as having been suspended from an investigation by the force, being signed off from work because of physical or mental ill-health, or having recently experienced a trauma in the workplace? Have patterns emerged that point to specific factors being triggers that could be spotted and addressed?

Are you saying that, when someone has been signed off or relieved of their duties, for whatever reason, they would be signposted to a number of places where they might seek help, and that your organisation would be one of those, but there are others?

I wish Collette Stevenson the very best. I am very disappointed that I will not be sitting next to John Swinney on committee for the next two and a half years. Members might be aware that I will no longer be sitting on the Criminal Justice Committee after this committee session closes. By the way, I forewarn you that, if an alarm goes off in the building, it is entirely unrelated to what I am about to say. [Laughter.]

I thank the convener, deputy convener, colleagues, the clerking team, SPICe and everyone who has supported the Criminal Justice Committee over the past two and a bit years for their patience and, on occasion, forbearance, as well as for their support to me personally as I have worked on the committee.

I have worked on a number of committees since I got elected and on a number of bills, and I have to say that this is one of the best functioning, most cohesive, constructive and positive environments to work in. The committees in this Parliament do a tremendous job. It not said often enough how important committee work is in our unicameral existence, and I have always tried to approach that with a constructive and positive outlook, which I hope has been welcomed by members.

I also thank my colleague Russell Findlay, who will do a great job in his work on the Criminal Justice Committee as you approach a very challenging legislative environment over the next two years. I know from the committee’s work programme that you will face tremendous challenges, given the major reforms that are to be made to Scotland’s justice system. I wish the committee all the very best in its work.

With that, I make a plea that the committee, notwithstanding its potential changes in membership, continues in the same vein—that it approaches its work in a positive manner, with the good accord and rapport that we have enjoyed over the past two years. I hope that that continues for members, and I will continue to play my part in the Parliament as best I can in that vein, which I think is sorely lacking in politics these days. I wish the members of the committee the very best over the next two and a half years.

That is helpful.