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There are no guarantees for anything until the supplementary estimates come, which I hope will be next week.

It was part of the £620 million. The difficulty is that, on 9 December 2021, when I announced my budget, that reflected the reality at the time. That reality allowed us to draw down £620 million, which included the ScotWind money, the £145 million that we thought that we had for next year and all the other things that I have mentioned.

The two big things that have changed since the budget was drafted are that the £145 million that we were expecting next year has come this year—it is part of the £440 million; I have funded business support from the £440 million, as well as some self-isolation support grants—and we have had the finalised position on ScotWind. We had taken quite a prudent decision on ScotWind, because we have to be prudent.

The margin of error is what we think is the bare minimum that we are due to receive. For example, in the spillover dispute, we have identified the funding that we think is the baseline. The Scottish Fiscal Commission is the ultimate arbiter of whether that is sufficiently prudent and determines whether it is right for us to assume additional funding.

That is probably the process that we undergo. We did that for the first time last year. In the run-up to the end of the financial year, we kept being told that there would be no more money but then would be given additional funding. We decided last year that it was highly likely that there would be at least £500 million of additional funding. In the event, it was £1 billion or more. That gives an illustration of how we build in a margin of error.

If you take social care alone—I refer to last year’s figures rather than this year’s figures, because I have not seen updated figures from the Labour Party—that costing was in the region of £1.5 billion. I do not have headroom of £1.5 billion for social care alone.

In short, I say absolutely, 100 per cent, yes. There cannot just be multiyear projections, though; to go back to your previous question, it needs also to be about multiyear outcomes.

It is very difficult to deliver reform within one year. We have just finished one budget and are starting the one for next year. In order to deliver reform, budgeting needs to be on a multiyear basis. We could have better conversations about outcomes with a three-year budget, instead of schemes having to prove their worth within a year, in which case by the time funding is allocated and a scheme is set up, we are into another budget. I agree 100 per cent about multiyear budgets, but running parallel to that we need to think about what reforms we want to see over multiple years.

Throughout the process, we significantly analysed value for money. I am happy to come back with additional information.

The member will know that another two elements need to be factored in. The first concerns the additional costs of developing in the deeper Scottish waters and of connecting to the energy grid in Scotland. The second concerns the alternatives to the process that we have undertaken. Michael Matheson leads on the topic. He therefore leads on the process and has been heavily involved. My officials have been involved when it comes to the revenues and the budget process, but, when it comes to any comprehensive conversation, discussion or questions about ScotWind, I would far rather that he has the opportunity to respond.

There are three aims through ScotWind—and, I suppose, three interests. I have a financial interest in the funding that is available for the Scottish budget. As you will know, we have said that we want to use ScotWind revenues for action that specifically tackles the crises that we face.

There is a massive economic interest in ScotWind. I have gone through the details of the legacy of the supply chain. We consciously, intentionally and rightly built in to the bidding process that requirement—which, to the best of my knowledge, was not available in England and Wales—to leave a legacy in the supply chain. We had the supply chain development statement mechanism in order to ensure that bidders were required to make commitments on the supply chain, and, yes, there are contractual lock-ins, as it were, to ensure that they deliver on those commitments. To go back to my financial interest, from a tax perspective, that much broader view, on investing in healthy, robust and thriving supply chains that create good-quality and well-paid jobs generates an overall revenue that is far better than if we had just taken a very narrow view.

The third interest concerns energy transition and net zero. Ultimately, Michael Matheson has been leading, although I have been interested from an economic and a financial perspective. I would therefore rather take away questions on process and come back to you with robust and comprehensive written advice. Obviously, however, my finance officials have been involved in looking at that question of value for money.

On the overall impact, we have emerging data about business confidence from a number of sources. It is still a bit early to get a comprehensive grasp of precisely what the sectoral impacts have been. However, the Scottish Government’s chief economist is trying to ensure that we have that sectoral understanding as far as possible.

Throughout this period, we have had extensive anecdotal and survey data on the impact of the restrictions, but it is still a bit early to look at the overall economic impact.

On business support, members should have received a note that I sent to all MSPs yesterday—I am looking for nodding heads. That gives a line-by-line breakdown of how much funding has been allocated and how much is unallocated.

In terms of where we go next, I had started to describe that when I answered the convener’s question on this area. There are a number of options around recovery spend on areas including tourism and retail. Most of those sectors are saying that they would rather be open and trading. Therefore, the more that we can do to ensure that they can be, the better.

I am just looking through my emails to confirm that that note has been sent, but I will assume, based on members’ nods, that it has.

There is definitely a comparison to be made not just between Scotland and the rest of the UK. I certainly do not believe that that is ambitious enough, when you look at the UK’s economic performance against that of other countries, not least those in Europe. We need to lift our eyes and our ambitions beyond comparisons with the rest of the UK. You have, for example, cited the figures for Scotland’s productivity growth between 2007 and 2019, and indeed, as far as the pandemic is concerned, we reflected last week on the fact that Scotland is now back to pre-pandemic levels of growth in gross domestic product. According to November’s GDP estimates, we exceeded the figure for February 2020, and we broadly tracked the rest of the UK through the pandemic years. Moreover, unemployment is lower in Scotland than it is in the rest of the UK.

Although there are very legitimate debates that we all need to have about how we can be even more ambitious and aspirational for the Scottish economy, which is something that I would back completely, we cannot dismiss the strong fundamentals that the economy already has. There is huge potential, but I think that, over the past two years in particular, we have demonstrated that, despite health decisions being taken at slightly different times, we have broadly tracked the rest of the UK. We have also got back to pre-pandemic levels—and indeed did so in the same month as the rest of the UK; unemployment is lower; and we have made good progress over the past 10 years or so in productivity and foreign direct investment.

We all speak to businesses. Indeed, many of us will have spoken to international businesses that have chosen to relocate to Scotland, because of the talent pool, because of the reputation of our universities and colleges and because it is just a good place to do business in. We need to build on those strengths instead of dismissing or losing sight of them.

I will leave it to your mathematical calculations to determine the percentage. However, I think that the overall value of the £120 million is what you said.