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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 16 September 2025
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Displaying 918 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 21 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

I am almost tempted to start by asking what text messages the cabinet secretary has had, as she said that an hour is a very long time at the moment. However, I will not ask her to divulge that.

I am interested in going back to the points that the convener and Liz Smith raised about the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s report and asking the cabinet secretary to extrapolate. I asked the Scottish Fiscal Commission representatives this question as well, when they were in front of the committee. Figures 2.3 and 2.4 in the commission’s report, “Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts December 2021”—I do not expect the cabinet secretary to recall what those say—set out the tax net position and forecast the social security net position and new payments. Combining the numbers for 2026-27 for both those lines gives a tax net position of a deficit of £355 million, and social security represents £764 million of additional commitments and spend. That would indicate—if you accept those projections—that a sum of £1.1 billion to £1.2 billion would need to be found from other budgets.

Do you accept those projections? I accept that the issue goes beyond this budget, and it probably goes beyond the spending review in the new year. However, it is certainly on the horizon of this Parliament, and it suggests that some quite difficult in-line changes between budget lines will need to be made in the coming years. Is that a fair analysis of those forecasts?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 21 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

No—I kind of agree. Basically, income tax and social security bills are outwith your control in some manner or means and, if they put pressure on your budget, they will force you to manage budget lines elsewhere that are in your control, and that will be the dominant feature of the comprehensive spending review and the budgets in this session. That is what I am trying to get at.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 21 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

That is helpful. I will add one point. There is also a question mark over the timings of some of those publications; timing them better could help with the maturity of the debate, and I am happy to discuss that in the future. I could go on, but in the interests of time, I will finish there.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 21 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

Forgive me, but, in a sense, that response just continued the description of the problem rather than providing analysis.

If we look at figure 3.19 in the SFC’s report—this is directed more at the cabinet secretary than at Lucy O’Carroll—we see the particular problem in north-eastern Scotland. That is understandable, given the situation in the oil and gas industry. However, the issue is that no Scottish region performs better than the UK average. Indeed, no Scottish region performs better than Wales or Northern Ireland, which are devolved Administrations. Given that we have the levers, one would hope that Scotland as a whole would perform better than the UK average. At the very least, one would hope that some Scottish regions would do that, but they do not. Indeed, many of the regions that I have identified have exactly the same demographic problems and precisely the same issues with the legacy of deindustrialisation as Scotland has.

What is the analysis? Why is Scotland lagging behind? More important, why is every Scottish region lagging behind the UK average and the other devolved nations? Is that not a critical question that the Scottish Government must have a handle on?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 21 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

I have one additional suggestion. It is 2021, but the shop sells no items online. I gently suggest that that opportunity should not be overlooked. Likewise, if you were to find an MSP who had particular expertise in retail, you might want to ask them whether they could provide any observations.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 21 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

Absolutely. I speak out of a sense of public duty.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

One of the explanations is to do with relative performance of the financial services sector in the rest of the UK compared with that in Scotland. My understanding has always been that we have a strong financial services sector in Scotland. Why would the financial services sector in Scotland be underperforming that in the rest of the UK?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

“Doldrums” might not be a technical economic term, but it is a good descriptive one.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

I think that that is relatively straightforward. We see the increase and we know what the consequentials are when it comes to health. However, if we are saying that there is, in essence, a 7 per cent cut, and we still have all that Covid cost, which extends beyond health, then there is £1 billion to £2 billion to be found in other budget lines, which is legacy Covid spend, but it is not clear where that is.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Daniel Johnson

Do you agree with that, David Eiser? Of course, the other question is whether I am looking at the right numbers here.