Skip to main content
Loading…

Seòmar agus comataidhean

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

Criathragan Hide all filters

Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 19 June 2025
Select which types of business to include


Select level of detail in results

Displaying 1189 contributions

|

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Cabinet secretary, I would like to begin by seeking one piece of clarification, if I may. Last week, during your statement in the chamber, and at First Minister’s questions, we raised the Scottish Fiscal Commission data that is in figures 4.3 and 4.7, which made a projected estimate for 2026-27 of a £3.5 billion hole in public finances. You seem to be implying that that was not a correct estimate from the Scottish Fiscal Commission data. Why is it not correct?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Thank you; that is helpful.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Okay. I will make the same point from a slightly different angle. When you set out the national strategy for economic transformation, universities were said to be

“integral to the realisation of the national economic transformation strategy”,

because they play such a vital role when it comes to developing research and development, and innovation. Why are you cutting universities’ budgets in real terms, given that they have a considerable influence on economic growth and ensuring that we are developing research and development?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Really?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Right. To be clear, did you use that £3.5 billion figure in your estimates before the financial statement that you made, or were you using a different figure?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

I will ask specific questions about where you, as forecasters, think there is the best potential for improvement in productivity and economic growth. Obviously, that is the bottom line in trying to improve the Scottish economy for the future.

I know that you cannot set policies and will not comment on that, but how easy is it for you as statisticians and people who are analysing the various trends in the economy to spot where there is the best potential for improving productivity and economic growth in the current set-up?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

We might hold you to that.

You mentioned Covid spending in answer to Mr Mason. Can you or one of your officials confirm that Covid spend from the UK Government was £8.6 billion for 2020-21 and £7.1 billion for 2021-22?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

That would be very helpful. Thank you.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Some of your recent analysis highlighted the fact that there are issues in relation to tax revenues from the north-east and the fact that some parts of the labour market there may change as a result of the just transition and changes in the structure of the economy.

Is it within your ability to set out where you think the greatest impact of the changes to tax revenues might be in the future, or is that something that you would let the Government do? I see tax revenues as absolutely critical. You have said in several consecutive reports that tax revenue is absolutely critical to how well the Scottish economy can perform. I would like to know how easy it is for a Government to set policy on the basis of your interpretation of that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

I absolutely understand that, but if we are to set effective policies it is helpful to know not only where the negative concerns are but where the potential for growth is. For several years now, your reports have highlighted tax revenue as being absolutely critical.

You have highlighted this morning, as well as within your report, that there are different factors to inflation. One is the cost push angle. Global prices, particularly in the energy market and in supply chains, are clearly causing very significant cost push. There is also the demand pull side. We are obviously hoping that demand within the economy and an eventual increase in earnings will drive that up. Are there different timescales in which the inflation effect will start to diminish? Is it different for the cost push and the demand pull? What is the likely scenario for when we will start to see inflation tailing off? Will that be largely because of cost push or demand pull?