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I understand the need to raise revenue, particularly in the current difficult economic circumstances. I also understand that you believe that the policy has one principle behind it—to help first-time buyers. I might not agree with that, but I understand the context for the policy.

However, I agree with the concerns that have been raised by the convener, Michelle Thomson and Daniel Johnson, who have made it clear that we do not have much evidence on behavioural change. There is an expectation, even on the part of the Scottish Fiscal Commission, that there will be some behavioural change. Michelle Thomson was right to suggest to you that, in order to be absolutely clear that the Scottish Government is on the right track here, we need to have some evidence on behavioural change.

You have said that what the Government is doing needs to be considered in the macroeconomic context. That is true. One of the factors in that macroeconomic context is that the Scottish working population is not as big relative to the total population as we would like it to be from the point of view of improving productivity and so on. To what extent are you comfortable that the policy effects of the tax change will not have a detrimental effect on the mobility of the working population because of the difficulties to do with the housing stock? Specifically in relation to populations in rural areas, where we have pretty serious issues with housing, are you convinced that the increase in the ADS will not have a detrimental effect?

I accept that the tax will raise revenue—that is clear from the evidence that we have had so far. I will come back to the issue that Michelle Thomson asked about. The assessment of what is likely to happen in the housing market as a result of this change is that it will have potentially have quite serious effects. Obviously, we have the evidence that has been presented to the committee and we also have strong anecdotal evidence that people are withdrawing from the market.

My question is to ask the Scottish Government about the potential detrimental effects of the removal from the market of quite a number of landlords who have extra dwellings that can support the economy. I come back to the point about the rural economy because, in some cases, there is a danger that, if too much of that activity comes out of the market, not only could it have a damaging effect on the mobility of the working population and repopulating difficult areas for the rural economy, it could have a considerable effect on tourism. We cannot afford to have any detrimental effects on those aspects of the economy. What evidence are you considering on those aspects of the economy? Finally, what discussions have you had with the Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Housing and Local Government over those likely effects?

For clarity, when is that likely to be?

Finally, I will pick up on the convener’s point that there are some inconsistencies in this approach. It is unfortunate that the reform to the additional dwelling supplement issue is happening at the same time as the review; it is almost a case of putting the cart before the horse. You are undertaking a review process, so would it not have been better to do it the other way round?

I understand the point about raising tax revenue. It is incumbent on all parliamentarians to recognise the importance of that. However, the proposed legislation will result in a lot of unintended consequences that have not been thought through. I find that pretty difficult, because such issues are important to the future of Scotland. On that basis, I will abstain on the vote.

What will restructuring of the SHRC office involve?

Convener, if it is all right with you, it would be important to get that additional information on the public record. Could Mr Carlaw produce that in due course? That would be fine.

We will have to disagree on that point. Some commentators—

As I say, we will have to disagree on that point.

Over the past five years, Scottish income tax policy has diverged from the rest of the UK’s tax policy because of the Parliament’s new powers, so the Scottish Government has been able to generate additional revenues. However, the potential additional spending power has been partially offset by weaker growth in income tax per head, and, as you admitted this morning, by weaker economic performance in Scotland—the UK economy has been weak, but the economy in Scotland has been weaker. What specific economic policies should be prioritised to ensure that productivity in Scotland is enhanced?

That is a helpful list. One thing that you did not mention but that I have heard you rightly mention in the chamber previously is the demographic concern. You are right that the size of the working population in relation to the total population is a major concern.

I want to ask about taxation policy, particularly for people in Scotland who are earning around £27,850 or above, who are paying a higher rate of tax than those in the rest of the UK. We have talked a little about behavioural change. Are you concerned that any of those who are middle to upper earners will feel that Scotland is perhaps not the most attractive place in which to live and work and to invest?