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It is a very complex area—I fully understand that. You are quite right about the time differences. Some policies take much longer.

Some witnesses have flagged up that there are still gaps in the data that is required to successfully undertake that work. Do you agree with that? Are there gaps in the data that you would like the Scottish Government to fill so that you are able to measure more effectively what is and is not successful? If there are gaps, could you indicate to the committee what they are?

Again, that is helpful. When it comes to working out how effective we are at targeting those who are most in need and where the Scottish Government’s resources should be placed, it is essential that we be able to drill down into just how effective the modelling and the policy making are, so that we assess the results in terms of that success and, therefore, the Scottish Government’s resources can be better targeted at the areas where we feel that we can make the greatest difference. Do you accept that?

Good morning. I will concentrate on the labour market and particularly on economic inactivity, which is, as you well know, a huge issue just now. I particularly want to focus on the report that the Centre for Social Justice published earlier this year, which flags up that, in Scotland, one in five of those who are classified as economically inactive want to work but are finding it difficult to get into the labour market for various reasons. In your research, do you have good-quality analysis of where the sticking points are in the labour market for those who want to work but are unable to get into work?

Is it not the case, however, that there are differences among those who are in the economic inactivity group? There are some who actually want to work but are finding it very difficult to get into the labour market and some who are not really bothered, to be quite honest. If we want to attract people back into the labour market, do we need to pursue different policies for those two different categories of people?

Thank you for that helpful answer. Do you, as part an institute that does so much economic analysis, feel that the UK has sufficient data to drill down into economic inactivity? It is a major factor in policy making. If we could solve some of the economic inactivity issues, we would not only increase revenue but increase productivity in the economy. However, it strikes me—I think that I also speak for another parliamentary committee in saying this—that the data is vague and not terribly helpful. Do you agree that, across the UK, we do not have enough data on the issue?

That information came across when the OBR gave evidence to the committee last week. In the UK, we seem to have higher rates of economic inactivity compared with other countries. All countries experienced Covid, but we seem to be an outlier in that regard. Do you have any reflections on why that is?

Do you think that co-operation between the DWP and Social Security Scotland is improving?

That is encouraging to hear. If we are to be successful in targeting those who are most in need and to have effective measurement of which policies work better than others, it is absolutely critical that we have the right data in place. Exactly that point was flagged up in last week’s evidence session with local authority representatives. You are right that local authorities are finding it much easier to work with the 2017 act, because it forces them to think about exactly what they are measuring and how effective they are at doing that.

However, there is a bigger picture in relation to the estimates that have come from the Scottish Fiscal Commission, which we all know about, and are only too real. If we are going to use social security to provide the best possible benefits to everyone in Scotland, we have to target those who are most in need and ensure that we have the right data to allow us to do that. That brings in difficult arguments about which payments can and cannot be universal. However, the committee is interested in how effective the policy making is, which is why I was interested in the comments that you made in your report about that data.

Hannah Randolph, you made an interesting comment about modelling. Will you expand a bit on that?

That is helpful. Professor Sinclair or Mr Dickie, do you have any comments on improving data?

Mr Birt, the most recent Joseph Rowntree Foundation report, which was very interesting, was about some of the aspects of child poverty. It was very supportive of the policy that we have in Scotland, as everybody has been this morning, but you raised some interesting issues about “weaknesses” in the data, as you described it. You commented that, if the Scottish Government makes a huge commitment of £400 million-plus to a policy such as this, we must be able to drill down into the details of that policy.

What extra data would you like in order for us to be able to measure more effectively what the outcomes are when we implement a policy?