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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 5 November 2025
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Displaying 1294 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Sorry, I will press you on this, cabinet secretary, because it is absolutely vital to the policies. It is extremely helpful that we have a statement that looks over a longer period of time—it is the first that we have had since 2011.

You are making choices and setting your policy commitments based, I hope, on what you see as the accurate statistics. Given what you said last week, I want to know what you think we need to take into consideration that changes the statistic that the Scottish Fiscal Commission produced relatively recently.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

I understand that. I am asking you to tell us—because it is important, as you have acknowledged—if, as you rightly point out, those changes have all taken place, what figure are you using for the black hole in the public finances?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

If extra money that you are not currently expecting became available to you, would universities benefit from it?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

It is not a budget, cabinet secretary—you said that originally. It is not a budget that you are producing.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Right. To be clear, did you use that £3.5 billion figure in your estimates before the financial statement that you made, or were you using a different figure?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

I will ask specific questions about where you, as forecasters, think there is the best potential for improvement in productivity and economic growth. Obviously, that is the bottom line in trying to improve the Scottish economy for the future.

I know that you cannot set policies and will not comment on that, but how easy is it for you as statisticians and people who are analysing the various trends in the economy to spot where there is the best potential for improving productivity and economic growth in the current set-up?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Really?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Cabinet secretary, I would like to begin by seeking one piece of clarification, if I may. Last week, during your statement in the chamber, and at First Minister’s questions, we raised the Scottish Fiscal Commission data that is in figures 4.3 and 4.7, which made a projected estimate for 2026-27 of a £3.5 billion hole in public finances. You seem to be implying that that was not a correct estimate from the Scottish Fiscal Commission data. Why is it not correct?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Thank you; that is helpful.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Economic and Fiscal Forecasts, Resource Spending Review and Medium-term Financial Strategy

Meeting date: 7 June 2022

Liz Smith

Some of your recent analysis highlighted the fact that there are issues in relation to tax revenues from the north-east and the fact that some parts of the labour market there may change as a result of the just transition and changes in the structure of the economy.

Is it within your ability to set out where you think the greatest impact of the changes to tax revenues might be in the future, or is that something that you would let the Government do? I see tax revenues as absolutely critical. You have said in several consecutive reports that tax revenue is absolutely critical to how well the Scottish economy can perform. I would like to know how easy it is for a Government to set policy on the basis of your interpretation of that.