Seòmar agus comataidhean

Thank you—that was helpful. I have no further questions. I feel that you might get asked more about that shortly.

You have just highlighted an issue that, as a non-driver, I am aware of: the cost of getting the exact same service from a dealership or from another provider who is licensed to operate to the same standards can be eye-wateringly different. Is there anything that Government can do to take some of the costs out of dealerships? I do not want to say that they have a racket going on, but they seem to say that you must go to them for your first couple of services or inspections, and people might not be aware that they can then shop elsewhere. That is an issue with the current market. Is that one of the risks for switching to EV, too?

That is helpful. I am sorry for truncating your reply, Jess. Dr Winskel, do you want to add anything?

I hope that my question will be helpful. It will also be brief, and it will be technical.

I want to better understand the targets in the draft climate change plan that are derived directly from the Scottish Government’s policy intentions, and what the actual baseline policies are. I want to check that I have understood this correctly. I will use transport as an example. I can see that there is an expectation that from 2026 to 2040 there will be a reduction of 23.8 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent as a direct result of Scottish Government policies, but the overall reduction will be 38.3 million tonnes—if my eyesight does not fail me. The point is about the difference between Scottish Government policies and external factors such as private sector change, UK Government policy, the cost of energy, dietary changes and other things that are not directly within the Scottish Government’s control.

How best can we understand the numbers in the draft plan? Is there enough information to allow people like you to take an informed view as to whether the numbers stack up or do not stack up? Is there a need for more transparency around how the modelling works and how those numbers are arrived at? That is not a question about whether the plan will be successful or not; it is about how we can best understand the numbers in the plan in a reliable way. That was a lengthy question, but I have tried to be very specific in what I am asking.

Thank you. I hope that others will come in and take up the challenge.

Let me clarify my language. People are not being forced to make a switch now. However, if we fast forward 10 years and the only relatively new car that you can buy is an EV, they will be making the switch, one way or another. How do we make it more affordable? What are the short and long-term cost implications of doing so that have not been put on the record yet? We would like to hear about that.

I will not follow up on that, Dr Winskel, but it is very helpful. If the Government can do that for one sector and provide the range and give a bit of an explanation, why not across the board? Thank you.

Yes, thank you, convener. My question is quite similar to Douglas’s. We were just considering the short and long-term cost implications of a rapid switch to electric vehicles. That concerns individuals, businesses and the taxpayer, but I will focus on individuals. If I have this right, by 2035, manufacturers will, I hope, no longer be making combustion-engine cars and the switch will be complete. Effectively, during the next 10 years, consumers will be making financial decisions on buying a new car or a second-hand car. They might be tied into one more finance deal—for example, if they are not buying a car outright, and most folk do not. After that, they have to make the switch and that is that. Not everyone has to do it quickly, but the window for doing so is closing.

What are the cost implications of that for individuals? There is no point in saying, “Oh—it’s costly. That’s an issue”. I am thinking more about how Government works in partnership with the financial sector to make it affordable, given that—let us be honest about it, convener—the sector will continue to make a fortune out of financing and refinancing cars, as it currently does.

I will give an illustrative example. I am a non-driver. The person who gives me a lift drives an MG. It is a family car and is not electric. MG’s cheapest electric model starts from £19,000 and hurtles up to around £55,000, depending on the car that you get. A second-hand equivalent is around £8,000 or £9,000, which is a dramatic contrast.

How do we quantify the short and long-term costs to the individual of making that switch? More important, how do we get partners in the financial sector and others to bring in products that do not price gouge consumers who have to switch and to get them to work in partnership to give a good deal to those who have no choice but to make a switch by 2035?

Sorry for the length of the question. That captures everything that I want to get more information on, so I might not need to come back in, depending on the answers. Who would like to pick up the cudgels of that initially?

Andy Poole was kind enough to wave, convener.

That is helpful. I know that Jess Pepper and Dr Winskel want to come in here. We will have one more reply after this. If there is a consistency of answers, we can move on, given the convener’s appeal. Dr Winskel, I will take you after Jess Pepper.

I would make the assumption that Government assumptions fall within a range. The Government cannot land something to the exact pounds and pence of cost or the carbon reduction threshold—there will be a range. What is the range that the Scottish Government is working to? Is it the most optimistic part, the most pessimistic part, or has it laid it bang in the middle? What has informed the Scottish Government’s view? Lloyd Austin seems to be suggesting that there is a void at the moment in understanding that.

Can I check some costs with you? Say you are driving an EV car with an EVED of 3p a mile. In future, that could become 6p or 9p a mile. Would you like there to be certainty and a clear line of sight that costs will be constrained or capped in some way?