Seòmar agus comataidhean

I hope that I do not get shot down in flames by the witnesses but, having listened to the entire evidence session, it appears as though—I sit on the Social Justice and Social Security Committee so I understand the language that I am about to use—there has been a safe, secure and successful transfer of powers to a Scottish level, but they are clearly imperfect. They were imperfect before the transfer, and we have not heard about any improvements—at least, it is reasonable to say that the improvements have been modest at best. I am just trying to be balanced in my approach.

However, we heard from Bridget Marshall of SEPA that additional scrutiny and focus have been brought by ESS and that a wider range of issues are now being discussed, including more localised ones. That seems be something really positive that should be captured in this evidence session.

We are not the only part of the UK that is grappling with the issue. I am conscious that, in England, the Office for Environmental Protection is doing something similar—that is all that I have got in the tank in relation to what England, Northern Ireland and Wales are doing. I have just found out that there is an interim environmental assessor for Wales, which apparently is an advisory role to the Welsh Government.

My question is: where has Scotland done well vis-à-vis the other parts of the UK? Where are they ahead of us? Where can we learn from them about what we have to do better? This is not happening in isolation. We should learn from each other’s experiences across the UK.

If anyone has something concrete and meaningful in relation to some of that, it would help our scrutiny.

Moving on, convener—

Okay. Thank you.

Just to give a slight balance to the debate, I have to say that I did not detect any scepticism. Instead, what I heard today from the questioning, including that from myself, was the fact that there are huge challenges in achieving that modal shift—that is, getting individuals and families out of cars and on to buses—as well as the fact that significant public investment is already sitting there and that the existing money can be used better. I suppose that the subordinate legislation is part of that, as it ensures that local authorities can use the new powers but that bus operators—who are the main, key and strategic partners—can object, as appropriate, to certain measures.

The statutory instrument appears to be quite balanced, so we did really not ask about that. Instead, we used the session more as an opportunity to take a strategic look again at how we take forward publicly funded buses in Scotland in a strategic manner and to have a wee bit of wider budget scrutiny. I did not detect any cynicism—I want to put that on the record—but I did detect significant challenges that not just Government but all of us together in Parliament have a responsibility to address.

I will leave it at that, convener.

I will just double-check something before Professor Parsons comes in—he could also deal with this point when he answers.

Bridget, are you saying that you anticipate that, in the near future, there will be an understanding of environmental issues that are clearly systemic? Although individuals and communities may have to go through your processes, will there be an understanding, almost before something gets to ESS, that a case will be deemed to be permissible for further investigation and potential enforcement because of the data, information and expertise that SEPA and Scottish Water have and the national trends that they see? Do you anticipate that that will happen?

Apologies, minister, for rewinding the clock slightly to talk about franchising. There is a little bit of mission drift in some of the questions, but this is for my own clarity. Clearly, we have to learn lessons on franchising from elsewhere, but my experience in Glasgow is that there are some very profitable routes. I think of the 61 bus in my constituency, where you can pack them in, the bus is always full and there is a high frequency of service. However, after a certain time at night, you cannot get the 8 or the 90; there are connectivity issues in my constituency. Quite often, routes are subsidised—I think that the minister mentioned £55 million-worth of subsidies. If franchising were to roll out in a meaningful way and routes were bundled as part of the franchising process, should we expect to see that public subsidy in other areas, where bus companies withdraw from a service because they have no compulsion to continue to offer a commercial service and require a public subsidy? Could we see a shift in that relationship with franchising? Has there been modelling work done in that regard? You do not need to answer today necessarily, but I am keen to better understand that relationship, because it is central to a lot of it.

I was not grilling you on that, minister.

Does the Fiscal Commission build in a tolerance level in relation to that £1.5 billion? I absolutely get the point—your forecast could be dramatically blown off course by a significant policy change at a UK or a Scottish level, or by an unforeseen event. Does the Fiscal Commission build in a 5 per cent tolerance or a 10 per cent tolerance? I do not even know whether that is a thing, as this is not my area. If your forecast is £1.5 billion, would you say that that could be 10 per cent higher or 10 per cent lower, based on a range of judgments? If so, what is the tolerance level around that?

Thanks for putting that on the record.

You have probably guessed the final part of my question. You say that you need a bit more time. The Scottish Government is committed to reviewing all of this in the round, but it cannot do that unless it is confident that it has robust baseline data. Quite rightly, you need a bit more time, but the committee needs to plan how we wish to scrutinise all of that. What do you think “a bit more time” looks like? When will things have stabilised so that we have that baseline data?