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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 6 March 2026
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Displaying 4689 contributions

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Education, Children and Young People Committee [Draft]

Restraint and Seclusion in Schools (Scotland) Bill: Stage 2

Meeting date: 4 March 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Now that we have covered the procedure that we will follow, we will move to the substantive business. Amendment 1, in the name of Daniel Johnson, is grouped with amendments 2, 3, 7 and 23.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Kenneth Gibson

There is also the issue of broadening the tax base, which we might come to in a few minutes.

I found it really quite touching that you wrote in paragraph 3.1 of your report something that you have reiterated today:

“Political parties need to be clear about what the Scottish Government can afford and the impact on public spending for people in Scotland. Manifestos should make clear if any additional spending commitments set out would need cuts to other areas of spending or raising more revenue to fund them.”

I thought that it was quite sweet and innocent of you to write that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Governments, wherever they are, always talk about reducing spending or keeping spending the same, and, if they increase it—I say that because, if we look at the big picture, we can see that there are real-terms increases—that increase might be less than is required. However, efficiencies do not always follow: the fact that you are spending less money in an area does not mean that it will become more efficient.

09:30

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Kenneth Gibson

It all comes back to outcomes.

Thank you for those responses. Michelle Thomson will ask the next questions.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Okay, that is fine—apologies.

In paragraph 3.28, on local government services, you stated that

“the Improvement Service reported that in 2022-23 and 2023-24”—

that is a couple of years back—

“(the most recent data available) more performance indicators declined than improved … 45 per cent compared to 39 per cent”.

Will you tell us what you think the reasons for that are? Is that balanced? For example, were the 45 per cent of indicators that declined in large or small areas of local government spending, or were they equally balanced? Some indicators might be quite small while others might be significant. Will you tell us a wee bit more about that picture?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Kenneth Gibson

In paragraph 1.51, you point out that 93.5 per cent of the Scottish capital budget effectively comes from Westminster, so we are basically at the mercy of the decisions that are taken there. That was a big feature of your presentation last Thursday. I think that we all accept that we are having a real-terms reduction in capital, and it is probably deeper in real terms than you say, because we use a gross domestic product deflator, which I have talked about before. That means that delays and cost overruns have an even more adverse impact on maintenance and new capital projects, does it not?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Kenneth Gibson

It is in all age groups, is it not?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. We will go to Liz Smith, followed by John Mason.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Of course, it is not just global events. We touched on the fact that the UK Government’s policy decisions are having huge impacts. A year ago, we were facing an £800 million reduction because of what we thought were going to be disability benefit cuts, which did not take place, and we did not think that the mitigation of the two-child benefit cap was going to happen. There was a potential £1 billion loss because of income tax changes, and then we had the national insurance contribution increases. The UK Government alone toyed with up to £2 billion of potential detriment to the Scottish budget. That goes back to one of the cornerstones of the fiscal framework, which is no detriment. As we have already heard this morning, in the past year alone, there has been huge turbulence and uncertainty in Scotland’s finances because the no-detriment aspect of the fiscal framework has not really been adhered to. The Government could, on a whim, have deducted £1 billion from our budget, if it had decided to cut income tax, which, of course, it did not.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Yes, from a technical point of view, but, in reality, at the end of the day, we are like a ship that can be tossed any way in a storm.