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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 16 September 2025
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Displaying 3649 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Pre-budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 9 September 2025

Kenneth Gibson

Item 2 is to take evidence from two panels of witnesses on responding to long-term fiscal pressures, as part of our pre-budget scrutiny 2026-27. We are joined by Richard Robinson, senior manager, Audit Scotland; and João Sousa, deputy director and senior knowledge exchange fellow at the Fraser of Allander Institute. I welcome you both. We have your submissions, so we will move straight to questions.

I will begin by asking Mr Sousa about one of the things that you said in your submission. It is quite interesting, and it relates to a point that I put to the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government last week. You said that, under the medium-term financial strategy,

“No area of spending is assumed to fall in real terms—all areas are presumed to grow in line with inflation except those areas which are likely to grow more than that”,

such as the national health service, social security, pay and local government. Basically, you are saying that the MTFS assumes that there is no prioritisation, because everything is prioritised. Let me have your further thoughts on that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Pre-budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 9 September 2025

Kenneth Gibson

Mr Sousa, you said that the statement that

“the devolved workforce will fall by 0.5% a year”

and

“this will have no effect on frontline services ... seems implausible in the absence of some pretty heroic improvements in productivity”.

Half a per cent a year doesnae seem that heroic, really. I know that we are talking about not just 0.5 per cent but 0.5 per cent over and above what productivity would be anyway. Will you talk us through how we can deliver that 0.5 per cent?

Without referring directly to them, you have alluded to compulsory redundancies, which I have raised many times in the committee. You went on to say:

“There is no reason to suspect that the people retiring or leaving the Scottish public sector will be doing so in the roles that need eliminated—a real plan, looking at the hard choices of what needs and does not need to be done, and how the skills for that match up with the ones available in the redeployment pool is what is necessary, and it seems to be missing from the FSDP.”

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Pre-budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 9 September 2025

Kenneth Gibson

Mr Sousa, in respect of people who are economically inactive, you have talked about the need for a person-centred approach and for Scotland to emphasise skills in order to broaden the tax base. You have also talked about how, for example, there are real problems with capital formation, especially in net terms. Can you talk to us a wee bit more about that?

You go on to say:

“UK capital spending remains lower, barely above replacement level, and so does Scotland’s. Every year we invest less than peer countries, the gap in capital stock grows, which then results in the large gap in productivity we see today.”

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Pre-budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 9 September 2025

Kenneth Gibson

Yes. Basically, there is a concern that some of the figures that we may be using are considerably out of date. You also talk about how the whole capital spending is forecast to create a gap of about £2.1 billion in capital investment, highlighting the importance of the prioritisation of capital spending towards the Scottish Government’s priorities in the Scottish spending review 2025.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Pre-budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 9 September 2025

Kenneth Gibson

A lot of little projects might be a good idea then, it seems. Just one last thing from me and it is on transparency. I will stick with you, Mr Sousa. You have said:

“One of our main gripes with these documents is the lack of detail and access provided to external parties such as us to scrutinise the underlying assumptions.”

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Pre-budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 9 September 2025

Kenneth Gibson

Yes.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Pre-budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 9 September 2025

Kenneth Gibson

I wondered about that, because I do not think that Wales would be too chuffed about such a move.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Pre-budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 9 September 2025

Kenneth Gibson

I will resist the temptation to add my own tuppenceworth, because five people are waiting to come in, and I am sure that several of them want to speak about preventative spend.

11:15  

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Pre-budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 9 September 2025

Kenneth Gibson

You have done it so many times in the past 15 years.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Pre-budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 9 September 2025

Kenneth Gibson

Do any of our guests want to pick up on that?

11:30