The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.
All Official Reports of meetings in the Debating Chamber of the Scottish Parliament.
All Official Reports of public meetings of committees.
Displaying 4779 contributions
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
One of the key issues regarding the UK budget is the increase in the amount of taxation; some £26 billion in extra taxes will be imposed, with a significant number of people moving into higher rates of taxation. Have you looked into the behavioural response that that will cause? When we take evidence from the SFC, we often talk about the behavioural impact of, for example, increasing taxation on people in Scotland who are in the higher bands. That behavioural impact can reduce the take by as much as 83 per cent. What is the likely behavioural impact of the tax changes in the UK budget?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
That figure of 1 per cent of GDP would be £30 billion—
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
Alex, do you want to come in on that question?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
Sorry, but a 15 per cent reduction in the overall trade intensity of the UK economy is very significant.
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
I realise that we have an ageing population, but the point about downgrading productivity is astonishing when one thinks of all the new technological innovations that are coming in.
I want to ask you about the chancellor’s fiscal headroom. I do not think that the phrase “fiscal headroom” has been used as much in recent years as it has been in the past few months. The chancellor has taken on board concerns about that headroom and has increased it from £10 billion to £22 billion, but your analysis says that that increases the likelihood of her meeting her fiscal targets only from 54 to 59 per cent—which means that there is still a 41 per cent risk that she will not. Why is a £12 billion increase in headroom providing her with only a 5 per cent greater chance of meeting targets? That seems quite strange to me.
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
The implication is that the policy will reduce the number of flats available for rent. Is that correct?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
If the Scottish Government decides not to copy the UK Government, what will be the implications of a block grant adjustment?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
Thank you.
The increase in employer national insurance contributions has been a big issue over the past year. In its report last year, the OBR predicted that that would have an impact of some 50,000 jobs, but the hospitality sector alone has said that it has cost something like 169,000 jobs. Is that an accurate reflection of the impact on that particular sector, or have there been other things at play, such as the increase in the minimum wage or whatever, that have exacerbated that situation? In other words, having looked at this over the past year, can you tell us what the actual impact from ENICs has been, relative to the overall impact on that sector and the wider economy?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
There is only one more question from me, because colleagues are keen to come in. As a result of the budget, the Scottish Government will receive an extra £510 million in resource funding during the next four years and an extra £310 million in capital funding over five years. That represents about 0.2 per cent of resource funding and 0.7 per cent of capital funding. The report goes on to say that although that will create a boost in the short term, it will erode very quickly and there will be a small cut in day-to-day spending by 2028-29.
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
We will be doing so this afternoon. [Laughter.]