The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.
All Official Reports of meetings in the Debating Chamber of the Scottish Parliament.
All Official Reports of public meetings of committees.
Displaying 4779 contributions
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
I am going to let Liam Sinclair and Gavin Reid in. Three members—Michael Marra, Patrick Harvie and Liz Smith—have not come in at all, so we will have to move on after Liam and Gavin have spoken.
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
Clearly, it will contribute—it would be a worry if it did not—but it is about the level of contribution and impact on growth.
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
Okay. Lastly, near the bottom of page 29 of your report, well below chart A, it says:
“UK and global productivity growth between the early 1990s and mid-2000s was likely boosted by rapid increases in trade as a share of GDP. UK trade intensity has stagnated since 2008, and we expect it to fall in the coming years due to the recent resurgence in global protectionism on top of the enduring effects of Brexit. This is set to weigh on productivity growth”.
The report goes on to say, in the final paragraph of page 46:
“Weak growth over the medium term reflects a more restrictive global trade environment as well as the ongoing impact of Brexit, which we continue to expect to reduce the overall trade intensity of the UK economy by 15 per cent in the long term.”
What are the implications of that on the UK finances to the end of the forecast period?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
We have talked about the fact that, 20 years ago, we had one of the lowest debts—if not the lowest—of all the countries in the G7, yet now we have the highest, proportionately. Table 5.10 of your report says that central Government debt is forecast to increase from £105.7 billion in November 2024-25 to £136.6 billion by 2029-30—a whopping increase of around 30 per cent over the next five years—and that the proportion of debt in the UK will ratchet up a little, from 95 to 96 per cent, even though the amount being borrowed will decrease towards the end of the forecast period. Can you talk us through why the interest rates, which represent about £2,000 for every person in the UK per year, will be so high?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
You have not been to the cinema for a while, John. I think it is double what you are suggesting.
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
I have a few more people who want to come in. Do you want to come in on the same point, Alistair?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
So does Alex Reedijk.
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
You are talking about a significant boost to capital in the current financial year, but that will reduce such that, by 2029-30, it will be lower than it was in 2023-24. My concern about that is that you will get inflationary impacts—you do not have a 15 or 16 per cent increase in capacity, but you have all this additional capital, so prices go up and then, suddenly, the share of capital declines, relatively speaking, and you are stuck with high prices. Is that a potential impact?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
Historically, who has been the most accurate? We have the SFC coming in next week, incidentally.
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
John Mason is next.