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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 10 May 2025
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Displaying 3226 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Kenneth Gibson

On the issue of outturn data for income tax, which is mentioned in your report, if there was an improvement in the data, would you like the timescale to be somewhat truncated, or is that unlikely due to the way in which the system is set up?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Kenneth Gibson

You are wasted in this job: you should be in diplomacy. Somehow, I had the feeling that you would talk about the timing of the forecasts. Anyway, it was worth a try, wasn’t it?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Kenneth Gibson

You have said that the probability of the target for the updated fiscal mandate being met is 54 per cent, which is a bit worrying, is it not?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Kenneth Gibson

So, there is 0.3 per cent wriggle room. You say on page 158:

“The net impact of the policies announced at this Budget is to reduce real business investment in the near term by 1.8 per cent, or a cumulative £25 billion by the forecast horizon.”

You go on to say:

“If the tax-to-GDP ratio were to remain at its 2024-25 level, tax revenues would be £62.2 billion lower in 2029-30”

than you currently predict.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Kenneth Gibson

On page 83, you say:

“In the downside scenario, public and private capital are substitutes so every additional £1 of public investment reduces business investment by £0.50.”

You go on to say that

“the increase in public investment leaves GDP only 0.6 per cent higher in 50 years”.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you for your evidence today. It is very much appreciated. Before we wind up, are there any further points that the OBR would like to make to the committee?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Kenneth Gibson

It is greatly appreciated that you have come here in person. It makes a big difference to our scrutiny. Thank you very much.

That finishes the public part of our meeting. I will call a five-minute break to enable our witnesses, broadcasting staff and official report staff to leave.

11:16 Meeting continued in private until 12:14.  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Kenneth Gibson

You have said that a quarter of a million employers gain from the budget, 940,000 employers lose out and 820,000 employers see no change.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Kenneth Gibson

In table 2.1 on page 19, you say that from 2019 up to 2028, GDP is expected to rise by a cumulative 4.3 per cent, which puts the 4 per cent impact of Brexit into some context. Just over 4 per cent in nine years is kind of pitiful, really. The UK economy appears to be somewhat atherosclerotic, because in table A.1 on page 168, you say that the

“World GDP at purchasing power parity”

is expected to grow between 3.1 per cent and 3.3 per cent from 2023 onwards, which is more than six times that of the UK. What is your perspective on that, and how can we break that cycle of stagnation?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Kenneth Gibson

In your “Economic and fiscal outlook” report, you say:

“The outlook for productivity growth remains our most important and uncertain forecast judgement.”

You go on to say:

“The effects of subdued investment, the energy price shock, and Brexit compound the ongoing weakness seen since the financial crisis.”

Productivity growth is of great concern to the committee; we have raised it on numerous occasions in numerous fora with different people. How can we break the productivity bottleneck? You have also raised concerns about the number of people who are economically inactive. As a percentage of the population, there are now more people who are economically inactive in Scotland than there are in the UK.

Do you see the way to break the productivity problem being through technology and migration? What impact is demography—the ageing of the indigenous population, if you want to put it that way, or the people who live here already—having on productivity? One would think that migration and technological advances would improve productivity, but an ageing population is creating a drag on it.