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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 9 May 2025
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Displaying 3226 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Okay. What we see in the capital budget is really interesting. There is a big boost of some 12 per cent in real terms, which is very impressive. It does not quite match the 2022-23 capital allocation, but it is a significant increase on what we have in the current year. However, by 2029-30, that declines to only 6 per cent above the current year. Is that unusual? One would have thought that it would be the opposite, because projects have to be signed off, funding has to be allocated, procurement has to be secured and all the rest of it. Is that an unusual picture?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

I realise that the issue is really complex because, if people have better incomes and perhaps less anxiety and can buy better-quality food, one could argue that they will be less likely to be a burden on the NHS and so on. That is one way of looking at the matter, but it is about how we quantify that in human and economic terms.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

I am about to wind up the session. Do you have any further points to make? In doing so, you can make a plug for your presentation tomorrow at half past 8 in the Holyrood room.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

It is not that early—it is at half 8 in the morning and there will be bacon rolls, scrambled egg rolls, rolls and sausage and all that stuff, so people can skip breakfast and go straight there. I look forward to seeing you and everyone else there tomorrow morning. Thank you very much for that.

As that was the only public item on our agenda, I will now move the committee into private session.

12:11 Meeting continued in private until 12:19.  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

I would like to know the change within each band. My understanding is that there is a significant difference between the impacts of behavioural change in the two.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Yes.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. John Ireland, do you want to come in? No? Sorry—you are just wiggling your pen about. Remember, this is like an auction—if you touch your nose or anything like that, I will bring you in and expect you to buy a clock or something.

You touched on income tax, which I think is worth exploring. You have explored that in some detail in your report, but could you talk us through the income tax position a wee bit more. I am also very interested in the impact, as you see it, of income tax on behavioural change, as we are a year on from last year’s increases to the two highest tax rates in Scotland.

10:30  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you for that. It is certainly an issue that we will revisit.

Another significant area of revenue for the Scottish Government is non-domestic rates, in which I see that a quite significant increase is anticipated not next year, when you say that revenues will fall from £3,175 million to £3,052 million, but the following year, when you expect them to jump quite significantly by about 14 or 15 per cent. What is the reasoning for that? I see that they kind of level out after that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

That is fair enough. That is clear. You do not expect a massive retail boom or something like that, with everyone coughing up hugely higher rates. You have more or less explained that it is to do with the cycle.

You said that you have not included figures on national insurance contributions in the report. The Scottish Government has suggested that the increase in NICs will cost the public sector about £549 million. There are organisations within the public sector, such as the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities, that argue that their share will be significantly higher than the Scottish Government has estimated. Either way, the UK Government does not seem to be keen, for whatever reason—maybe because of the size of our public sector—to fully fund that £549 million, if that is indeed the figure, although discussions are continuing. What impact is that likely to have in terms of the overall budget?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Kenneth Gibson

Yes—in the context of non-domestic rates. Why is there such a big jump in your forecasts between 2025-26 and 2026-2027?