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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 18 December 2025
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Displaying 4037 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Before you ask another question, John, I see that Claire Murdoch wants to come in.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

It is not about commenting on policy choices; it is about showing which policy choices are available, and then it is up to politicians to decide whether to take one or other forward—I can see that.

I will open up the session to questions from members.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Sorry, but you are talking about 0.4 per cent of income tax revenues, which is £82 million.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

About 90 per cent comes from the UK Government.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. I now open up the meeting to members’ questions.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Obviously, I know that it is standard practice. It is frustrating that the figure is not based as much in reality as one would wish, certainly in these difficult times.

In the fiscal overview, on page 3, you talk about resource funding rising by 8 per cent by 2028-29. However, on page 5, unless my arithmetic is wrong, you say that the funding will increase in real terms from £52,449 million to £54,691 million, which is actually an increase of 4.2 per cent rather than 8 per cent.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

It is interesting that, in her statement yesterday, the Deputy First Minister talked about a 10 per cent reduction over five years, rather than a 20 per cent reduction. That seems odd, given the figures that you have used. I did not see your figures until after the statement; if I had seen them, I would have asked the Deputy First Minister about that.

One of the issues that has been very much to the forefront has been the new additional rate of income tax, which starts at £75,000 a year. You have assumed that that will produce £82 million net, but the gross figure is £200 million. Basically, you are saying that the £200 million that, on paper, is being levied by that change will bring in only 41 per cent of that estimate, or £82 million. Would that be right?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

How accurate are your predictions likely to be in that regard? What are the margins of error? I would have thought that they could be quite wide.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I want to come back to capital, briefly. I will ask questions for only another three or four minutes, because colleagues are keen to come in. What is the impact of the reduction in capital on medium to long-term growth? Even if we accept the GDP deflator—we know that the reality is completely different, but assuming that we accept that as a real figure—that will still mean a 20 per cent reduction in capital over five years. What will be the impact on growth and productivity of capital taking such a hit?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I have a final question for the moment. In its autumn statement, the UK Government did not look beyond 2024-25. What impact has that had on your forecasting for Scotland?

12:30