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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 11 May 2025
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Displaying 3226 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

We are basically walking a tightrope.

How much was the UK spend on interest on its debt in the most recent month for which you have figures?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I will open the session to colleagues. The first question is from the deputy convener, Daniel Johnson.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

Even in the broadest sense, if we have 1.6 million or 1.7 million people who are unemployed and about 5 million who are economically inactive, that will clearly have a major impact on growth, productivity and tax revenues.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

David, do you want to come in?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

A lot of the money that was underspent on the concessionary fares scheme for young people was switched to bus services in the summer to ensure that they did not fold. That was the case with some local services in my constituency.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I do not think that it helps to have tax havens in the British isles, if we include the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man.

We have talked about the GDP deflator, but what matters to people who put in pay claims is public perception. I would therefore suggest that this is all about headlines, which have a significant impact on the public sector, rather than the GDP deflator. The UK Government might say, “The Treasury costs are blah blah blah, so that is the GDP deflator,” but that is not how the public see it—they just see what is on the news and in the papers.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

My understanding is that the figure came from Richard Hughes, the chair of OBR. We will move on.

You talked about growth. I was looking at The Economist’s review of 2023. As you will know, every year The Economist provides a number of forecasts, although they are not the kind of forecasts that we generally discuss—perhaps “predictions” is a better word—for economic growth and so on. It says that the UK will grow at -0.8 per cent next year, with a per capita income of $55,000 at purchasing power parity, whereas the Republic of Ireland will grow at 5.4 per cent, with a purchasing power parity per capita income of $135,000. Why is the UK in such a different position from countries such as Ireland, which is just next door?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

That is a good point. I understand that there has been a 600,000 increase in the number of people who are economically inactive relative to the number before the pandemic. I appreciate that that is an issue.

One of the things that has been predicted is a 7 per cent fall in living standards during the next two years. Obviously, the impact of that will vary considerably. Which groups in society do you feel will be most and least impacted?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I have one more question, which is about the block grant adjustment OBR tax forecasts. We have already heard that we do not expect much, if any, growth in the next few years, and we have heard about how living standards are going to fall. The OBR has predicted that Scotland’s income tax take, for example, will grow from just under £14.7 billion to just over £18.1 billion by 2027-28. That is a huge increase of almost £3.4 billion. Do you see that coming through fiscal drag or other measures?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 6 December 2022

Kenneth Gibson

I would have thought that the idea of an office that tries to make tax simpler and more understandable would be a positive thing.

The OBR mentioned unemployment, which we have touched on only peripherally. The OBR expects UK unemployment to rise by between 3.6 and 4.9 per cent by 2024. That will be a significant proportion of the workforce, at in excess of 1.5 million people. What might the regional impacts of that be? How do you anticipate that impacting on Scotland?