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Point taken.

Finally from me, when we debate the budget in the chamber, we will no doubt have the usual demands for vast increases in expenditure across every portfolio accompanied either by tax cuts or—who knows?—possibly tax rises. In the 26 days since your budget statement, which political parties have approached you asking to meet to discuss alternative proposals? Of those that do, will you insist that demands for increased spending in one area of the budget are met by identified reductions elsewhere or by specific tax rises in order to meet them, to ensure a balanced budget?

I just wanted to know if you had been approached by them. I would not expect them to turn up at your house on new year’s day to first foot you.

We will move on from that. You have raised really interesting points. I will certainly take them up with other people.

There is a 6.7 per cent increase in the general staffing budget. You have explained some of that, but the SPCB’s submission says:

“Staff pay including use of contractors is budgeted at £37.3m, a net increase of £2.3m … in cash terms”.

What is the breakdown between contractors and our own staff?

What developments do you expect from that to enhance public engagement? If you are employing three staff to enhance public engagement, what improvements in it do you envisage?

It is okay—that is a sound explanation. I should have thought of the national insurance issue, because you mention it in the document in relation to the overall budget. Thank you for explaining that.

I am going to ask about the annual survey of hours and earnings—the ASHE index. Given that the GDP deflator is 3.2 per cent, and consumer prices index inflation is 10 or 11 per cent, how do you arrive at that ASHE figure? I take it that it is about a year out of date. Is that right?

What is the point in that? No one would say to any other group of workers—including in the Scottish Parliament—that they were just going to use the inflation rate as it was in late 2021 for calculating pay. How has that figure been calculated and why has that approach been adopted? Who was consulted on that? It seems an anomaly.

The letter says, with regard to staff provision, that

“Based on the recent ASHE publication this derived an index of 4.1%”.

However, recognising current inflation figures, the SPCB has opted to use only the average weekly earnings index of 5.6 per cent in order to uplift the general staff provision for members. Why is that not being used for MSPs but it is being used for everyone else? You said that there was no virtue signalling, but it is clear that there is.

I add another point. If the ASHE index says that because inflation is 11 per cent—although by the same time next year inflation might be 3 or 4 per cent, or possibly even lower—MSPs should get a 5 or 6 per cent pay rise, we will just end up with lots of headlines about it being an inflation-busting pay rise, which, by that time, no one else in the public sector will be getting. That seems daft to me from a public relations or practical point of view—or indeed any point of view.

I am just trying to put it into context with where the rest of the Scottish consolidated fund is going to be spent. Not many areas are going to get the level of increase that each one of the office-holders has done.

Good morning, and welcome to the 34th meeting in 2022 of the Finance and Public Administration Committee. We have received apologies from Douglas Lumsden, who is attending a funeral today.

The first item on our agenda is an evidence session with the Scottish Government’s expert panel on the Scottish budget for 2023-24. We are joined remotely by Professor Sir Anton Muscatelli, principal and vice-chancellor of the University of Glasgow; Professor Frances Ruane, chair of the national competitiveness and productivity council and research affiliate at the Economic and Social Research Institute; and Dr Mike Brewer, chief economist and deputy chief executive at the Resolution Foundation. I welcome you all to the meeting.

I intend to allow up to 75 minutes for the session. We will move straight to questions. Our questions do not have to be answered by everybody. I will put my questions to Professor Muscatelli, who can decide which of his colleagues should answer. Although more than one person can answer, that does not need to happen.

The “Expert Panel Interim Commentary on the Implications of the UK Government Fiscal Statements for the Scottish Government Budget” sets out the panel’s thinking

“on how the Scottish Government could respond to the challenges it is facing through the tax system and the wider implications for public services and the economy.”

It suggests that the Scottish Government will need to find a balance between

“providing short-term support to vulnerable households and businesses; and ... investing to grow and improve the productivity and resilience of the economy in the medium to longer term.”

Has it done so?

I realise that you do not want to stray into political areas if you can avoid it, and that is not going to be easy but, when I asked about improving the productivity and resilience of the economy in the medium to long term, you said that the Scottish Government has done the best that it can given the constraints that you have mentioned. Is there anything that it can do differently to achieve those objectives?

Thank you very much for that. I now open up the session to colleagues.