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All Official Reports of meetings in the Debating Chamber of the Scottish Parliament.
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Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 26 November 2024
Kenneth Gibson
Scotland, obviously, has a disproportionate number of jobs in the North Sea, with the oil and gas industry. On page 67 of your report, you talk about the energy profits levy. You say:
“Overall, on average, we assume that over the forecast period capital expenditure is 26 per cent lower, oil production 6.3 per cent lower, and gas production 9.2 per cent lower compared to our March forecast”,
which are quite significant changes. What will the impact from those changes be on employment in that sector?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 26 November 2024
Kenneth Gibson
Yes, I appreciate that it is over and above things such as, for example, transition.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 26 November 2024
Kenneth Gibson
I am keen to ask more questions, but I have colleagues who are all champing at the bit to come in, so I shall desist.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 26 November 2024
Kenneth Gibson
I almost want to start singing that line from the wonderful Monty Python film.
This morning, the embryonic Trump regime said that Mexico, Canada and China will be the target of its tariffs.
To round off our discussion, I have a couple of questions, one of which is about economic inactivity, on which you had an interesting dialogue with Craig Hoy. The rate of economic activity is 26.3 per cent in Scotland and 25.2 per cent in the UK as a whole, so there is a 1.1 per cent difference. Have you looked to see where that difference arises?
The SFC has mentioned the fact that people forget that students are included in the economic activity rates. In Scotland, people do a four-year university degree, whereas, in England, they do a three-year university degree. If 40-odd per cent of Scottish young people go to university and their working life is reduced from, say, 45 years to 44 years, that is included in the economic inactivity rates when, in fact, one could argue that those university students are training for economic activity. Have you broken that down? The big issue that everyone is concerned about is people who are on long-term sickness and incapacity. Do you have a breakdown of the figures in relation to where the balance lies?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 26 November 2024
Kenneth Gibson
They used to call it “shovel ready”.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 26 November 2024
Kenneth Gibson
Whereas, traditionally, the Scottish Government will increase numbers and pay beyond that envelope.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 26 November 2024
Kenneth Gibson
I am sure that the SFC will be relieved that there will be no hostile takeover from the OBR. [Laughter.]
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 26 November 2024
Kenneth Gibson
You have said:
“In 2026 and 2027, we expect households to run down their rate of saving significantly as they try to maintain consumption growth in the face of stagnant real wages.”
You talk about a “direct behavioural response” to taxation, in that it will increase
“the incentive for more tax-motivated incorporations”.
You estimate that those will
“increase by a cumulative 17,000 by 2029-30”
as a result of the budget, and you say that
“These combined effects reduce the yield by”
£700 million by 2029-30. How do you come to that estimation of tax-motivated incorporations? That is also an issue of great concern in Scotland due to the different tax rates that we have here.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 26 November 2024
Kenneth Gibson
That is why I am asking you—I couldnae find it in the document.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 26 November 2024
Kenneth Gibson
Good morning, and welcome to the 33rd meeting in 2024 of the Finance and Public Administration Committee. The first item on our agenda is an evidence session with representatives from the Office for Budget Responsibility on the UK “Economic and fiscal outlook”, which will inform our scrutiny of the 2025-26 Scottish budget. I am delighted that we are joined in person by Richard Hughes, who is the chair of the OBR, and by Professor David Miles CBE and Tom Josephs, who are both members of the OBR’s budget responsibility committee. I thank you all for taking the time and the trouble to come all the way up here—it is very much appreciated—and I welcome you all to the meeting.
I invite Mr Hughes to make a short opening statement.