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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 7 June 2025
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Displaying 3368 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I have a few more questions.

It is interesting that, 10 years ago, when Robert Chote used to give evidence to the committee, productivity was a bugbear, and there were a number of suggestions about how we could improve it—everything from further investment in research and development to new technologies.

Since then, there has been the growth of working from home. A few weeks ago, The Economist suggested that working from home reduces productivity in the medium term by an average of about 19 per cent. I do not know whether you want to comment on that. The Sunday Times certainly touched on that on Sunday, in its report about the UK’s 552,000 civil servants.

You predicted that there would be an 85,000 head count increase in unemployment in the first quarter of 2025. How much of that will be caused by a reduction in public sector head count? A couple of years ago, the Scottish Government was looking to reduce the public sector head count to what it was pre-pandemic. It seems to have gone a wee bit quiet on that, and we will probably question the Government about it in the weeks ahead. Do reductions in public spending of 2.3 per cent in the short term and 4.1 per cent in real terms factor into your figures?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

You are right, but does it not affect pensioners specifically, because people who have retired have already paid tax and are now having to pay tax on their pensions? Is that not an issue of concern?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

There is just one further question, which comes from me. We are coming towards the end of the 28th United Nations climate change conference of the parties. The OBR said that there was

“little sign in the UK of significant new investment in low-carbon energy and heating technologies in response to the rise in gas prices”,

and it explained its view as to why that was. What is the IFS’s view on that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Yes. It will be interesting to see what is included in the £28 billion and whether that will be linked to inflation. The figure was £28 billion when the policy was announced. Will that money be worth the same in real terms in year 5? What pace will things progress at?

Thank you very much for your evidence today, gentlemen. As always, it has been really helpful.

12:18 Meeting continued in private until 12:30.  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

We will be taking evidence from the SFC next week. Is it your view that there are likely to be tens or hundreds of millions of pounds of additional expenditure in the years ahead?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I am thinking about the impact on capital. Capital inflation is running higher than resource inflation, yet the GDP deflator is predicted to grow by only 5.5 per cent over four years. That seems to be nonsense. Anyone who wants to get a house built or a road patched and goes out to tender will not be quoted a 5.5 per cent increase over the next four years, will they? Surely there should be a much more realistic look at how inflation is impacting on capital in particular.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I am thinking about looking in the round and looking not at individual projects but at capital procurement, which is a huge aspect of UK public spending relative to the same projects on the continent.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

Does Mr Hughes or Professor Miles have any final comments? Are there are any areas that you feel we have not touched on that you want to emphasise?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

We move on to the second part of our evidence session on the UK autumn budget statement and the wider UK context. We are joined remotely by Carl Emmerson, deputy director, and David Phillips, associate director and head of devolved and local government finance at the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Good morning, and I welcome you both to the meeting. I am glad to see that you are sitting together; that should make life a wee bit easier.

I will start where we left off. I quoted Paul Johnson’s response to the autumn statement to witnesses from the OBR, who gave evidence just a few moments ago. Professor Miles said that he thought that the IFS was being “somewhat pessimistic” in its outlook. What is your view on that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Kenneth Gibson

I thought he might be.