The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.
The Official Report search offers lots of different ways to find the information you’re looking for. The search is used as a professional tool by researchers and third-party organisations. It is also used by members of the public who may have less parliamentary awareness. This means it needs to provide the ability to run complex searches, and the ability to browse reports or perform a simple keyword search.
The web version of the Official Report has three different views:
Depending on the kind of search you want to do, one of these views will be the best option. The default view is to show the report for each meeting of Parliament or a committee. For a simple keyword search, the results will be shown by item of business.
When you choose to search by a particular MSP, the results returned will show each spoken contribution in Parliament or a committee, ordered by date with the most recent contributions first. This will usually return a lot of results, but you can refine your search by keyword, date and/or by meeting (committee or Chamber business).
We’ve chosen to display the entirety of each MSP’s contribution in the search results. This is intended to reduce the number of times that users need to click into an actual report to get the information that they’re looking for, but in some cases it can lead to very short contributions (“Yes.”) or very long ones (Ministerial statements, for example.) We’ll keep this under review and get feedback from users on whether this approach best meets their needs.
There are two types of keyword search:
If you select an MSP’s name from the dropdown menu, and add a phrase in quotation marks to the keyword field, then the search will return only examples of when the MSP said those exact words. You can further refine this search by adding a date range or selecting a particular committee or Meeting of the Parliament.
It’s also possible to run basic Boolean searches. For example:
There are two ways of searching by date.
You can either use the Start date and End date options to run a search across a particular date range. For example, you may know that a particular subject was discussed at some point in the last few weeks and choose a date range to reflect that.
Alternatively, you can use one of the pre-defined date ranges under “Select a time period”. These are:
If you search by an individual session, the list of MSPs and committees will automatically update to show only the MSPs and committees which were current during that session. For example, if you select Session 1 you will be show a list of MSPs and committees from Session 1.
If you add a custom date range which crosses more than one session of Parliament, the lists of MSPs and committees will update to show the information that was current at that time.
All Official Reports of meetings in the Debating Chamber of the Scottish Parliament.
All Official Reports of public meetings of committees.
Displaying 3304 contributions
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 20 December 2023
Kenneth Gibson
Thank you for that helpful opening statement.
I will turn straight to your report, “Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts”—my questions will be mostly based on that. On page 6 of the summary report, in the very first sentence of the introduction, you say:
“The Scottish Government’s budget next year is set to increase by £1.3 billion from the latest position for 2023-24. This is a rise of 2.6 per cent in cash terms or a 0.9 per cent rise after accounting for inflation.”
The point about the rate of inflation is always a bit of a bugbear for me, because it assumes a gross domestic product deflator for inflation of 1.7 per cent, but that does not bear any relationship to the real impact of inflation on the Scottish budget, given that more than half of the Scottish budget is salaries, which are increasing by significantly more than 1.7 per cent. Why does the assumption continue to be 1.7 per cent, given the differential between the GDP deflator and consumer prices index inflation?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 20 December 2023
Kenneth Gibson
Yes, because we are talking about a real-terms increase in resource, but it is not a real-terms increase in the real world, if you are using a deflator that is so far below the increase in wage settlements, for example.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 20 December 2023
Kenneth Gibson
Okay. I assumed that that was resource only. I did not realise that it was capital and resource.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 20 December 2023
Kenneth Gibson
That is what we are really looking at: how accurate the forecast has been and how behavioural change has impacted in previous years.
Some of the forecasts seem to be pessimistic compared to others. For example, it now seems that we are going have a positive reconciliation in 2025-26 of £732 million. That seems to be very optimistic compared to what was predicted. What explanation do you have for that?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 20 December 2023
Kenneth Gibson
This figure does not have a number. It is on page 5 of your summary report—it is right at the beginning.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 12 December 2023
Kenneth Gibson
I will move on to debt interest. One obvious concern is the fact that debt interest is increasing and national debt is now at 93 per cent of GDP. I understand that the cost of servicing that debt is about £116 billion this year. Could you discuss what you feel the impact of that will be for the next year or two and beyond?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 12 December 2023
Kenneth Gibson
I think that the debt interest in the UK is now about six times Scotland’s annual expenditure on the national health service, which puts things in some kind of perspective.
You have touched on health and social care spending in relation to departmental expenditure limits, saying that it is
“reaching 45 per cent of total resource DEL”
compared with
“25 per cent at the turn of the century.”
That is clearly on an upward trajectory. Given the fiscal position that we are in, how sustainable do you believe that to be?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 12 December 2023
Kenneth Gibson
Carl, you said that there are options other than raising tax, which I find intriguing. What are those other options?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 12 December 2023
Kenneth Gibson
Yes, although it is quite easy to predict what the natural growth in the population of people born in the UK is, because you get about 16 to 18 years’ lead time on that.
One of the issues of concern in your report is that almost 650,000 more adults were outside the labour market in the autumn of 2022 than at the start of 2020. You go on to mention the £7 billion that is being spent each year on health-related benefits and the resulting £9 billion that is lost in foregone tax revenue. That is at the same time as unemployment is set to increase by around 85,000 more than was predicted. What is the impact on growth of those figures?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 12 December 2023
Kenneth Gibson
Legal migration to the United Kingdom was roughly 750,000, net, last year, which was a record number. I would imagine that most of those people will be of working age. Has that not increased growth in the UK economy? What has been the impact on that?