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Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 29 April 2025
Kenneth Gibson
You have said that
“the planned Fiscal Sustainability Delivery Plan should be fully transparent about the scale of the risks to the affordability of public services and options for how the Scottish Government can manage them.”
What concerns do you have that the plan will not be transparent?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 29 April 2025
Kenneth Gibson
The Scottish Government has given a commitment to hold an annual fiscal sustainability debate, and I am sure that your report will make a significant contribution to our deliberations. Thank you for your evidence. You certainly came mob-handed.
I will wind up the session with a wee advert for tomorrow morning’s event on the report, which has been organised by the Scottish Parliament information centre. It will start at half past 8 in the Holyrood room. Everyone is welcome. Apparently, it will be chaired by a young, dynamic and outrageously handsome MSP, so it will be worth attending for that alone. Bacon rolls will also be provided, which I know is always a big draw. I realise that some members of the committee—Liz Smith is one—will not be able to come along, as they have other committee meetings tomorrow, but I hope that those of you who can, will do so. There will be an opportunity to ask further questions about what is a really important report.
We will have a two-minute break to allow broadcasting and official report staff to leave.
12:17 Meeting suspended.Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 29 April 2025
Kenneth Gibson
Thank you for that statement. I do not have any questions, so I will open up the discussion to members of the committee. At the moment, the only member who wants to ask a question is Ross Greer.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 29 April 2025
Kenneth Gibson
Ross Greer makes a good point. For example, 37 per cent of universal credit recipients are in work, which is perhaps not talked about as much as it should be.
Earlier, Professor Breedon and Professor Roy talked about the importance of debt and whether the 98 per cent of GDP level could go up to 150 per cent. We can think about the impact on debt interest, because the UK already pays six times more in debt interest than it spends on the NHS in Scotland in a year. Obviously, if debt goes up, interest payments go up, and it is likely that the level of interest will go up because our rating will decline. That is quite an important point.
I have a final question. Michelle Thomson touched on climate change, but your report states:
“This report does not integrate the effects of climate change or the Scottish Government’s climate change response into our projections because the data is currently unavailable.
Climate change has been deemed the most important health threat of the century.”
It goes on to talk about the impact on society and individuals of
“wetter winters, hotter, drier summers ... temperature extremes ... and frequent flooding”
and about the effects on health and wellbeing.
What discussions have you had with the Scottish Government and, perhaps through the OBR, with the UK Government to try to secure that data? In the presentation that you gave last year, you said that it would cost £186 billion, at last year’s prices, in combined funding from the public and private sectors, to deal with the climate crisis. That figure has stuck in my mind. Where are you with all of that?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 29 April 2025
Kenneth Gibson
When I was watching the news this morning, I found out that I have a mental illness. It was said that hoarding is apparently some kind of mental illness. I have a huge library because I have been collecting books since I was at school, so does that mean that I am a hoarder? One wonders how realistic these definitions are. The definitions might be impactful for individuals, but we have to consider the wider societal impact of how we define some of these things.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 29 April 2025
Kenneth Gibson
Thanks very much.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 29 April 2025
Kenneth Gibson
I realise that I have been asking questions for quite a while now—I apologise to colleagues for that. I will ask one more and then I will let everyone else in. There is another really interesting but depressing statistic in paragraph 4.48 in the report:
“Disability prevalence has risen from 19 per cent of the UK population in 2002-03 to 27 per cent of the population by 2022-23.”
Do your projections expect that trend to continue, to stay the same or to reverse?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 22 April 2025
Kenneth Gibson
I was hoping that you would. [Laughter.]
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 22 April 2025
Kenneth Gibson
You talked about institutional structure. Is there any way in which that can be improved?
Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]
Meeting date: 22 April 2025
Kenneth Gibson
It is difficult for both the OBR and the SFC, but we need to look at whether it is possible to reduce the gaps.
In your submission, you said:
“Differences in modelling approaches, data used, and judgements applied can all contribute to differences between our and the SFC’s forecasts.”
How can those differences in modelling and data use be reduced?