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It will impact on this budget, but it might not be the full, all-singing, all-dancing product of the fiscal framework. The work that is being done on the fiscal framework will impact on how we have discussions with local government about the budget, but areas will still be worked through beyond this budget. We will have quite a different discussion with local government about this budget than we have had in previous years, but the development of the fiscal framework will be an iterative process.

Your first question was about the Verity house agreement. A lot of the negotiation with the Scottish Government on the fiscal framework is being led by COSLA on behalf of local government. In the midst of that, COSLA has been working with trade unions to resolve some of their pay disputes. COSLA is quite a small organisation, and we ask a lot of it. COSLA being pulled in different directions is not a new issue; we need to understand that. That said, increasing the pace to conclude the fiscal framework discussions is a key priority for us both. All I am saying is that there has been an impact from COSLA having to deal with other matters, and we will work to conclude as much as we can to help with the budget process this year.

On the second area, yes, all those issues are part of the wicked problems with which the Scottish Government is wrestling. It is not just about the gap in finance and revenues that is projected through the MTFS, because layered on to that are the pay deals, which, owing to inflation, have exacerbated that situation. As I said, I do not resent a penny of it, but spending £0.5 billion more on pay than was budgeted for will clearly have an impact.

On top of that, we have targets for child poverty and climate change, both of which are statutory targets and key priorities for budget spend. Trying to navigate all that means that we have to be more targeted and will have to prioritise within the collective spending envelope. That work was done over the summer, and we continue to look at what we might have to do differently or stop doing. That is not necessarily comfortable territory, but it is the territory that we are undoubtedly in. We have to make sure that the key priorities receive the funding, and we need to continue to be clear about that. We have said this over and over again. I am not sure whether everybody understands the severity of the finances. Sometimes that may not be the case, but those are the difficult decisions that we will have to make.

I have talked about some of the levers that we have, but there are constraints on those levers, given some of the discussions that we have had about potential behavioural change and the limitations of our tax levers. It is a set of wicked problems, and there are no magic answers that no one has thought about before that we can pull out of the sky. The levers are the levers, and, at the end of the process, we will make our proposition and say, “These are the best decisions that, we think, can be made, given the constraints and the financial outlook”. If others think differently, they are always welcome to come to us with different propositions, as long as they tell us where the funding is to come from.

I could respond by saying that recent debates around whether a certain railway is going to end up in Manchester at a cost overrun of over £100 billion—

A £100 billion overspend on a railway that is now not going to go to Manchester just shows that all Governments have challenges with infrastructure projects. It is not an issue unique to the Scottish Government.

We have been clear, and Neil Gray has been clear, to the Ferguson’s management team—in which, of course, there have been leadership changes in recent times—about the requirement to constrain costs, the requirement to deliver on the timescales set out and the fact that not doing so does not do the reputation of Ferguson’s any good at a time when, clearly, that is important for future contracts and the future of the yard. I want to see a good, positive future for that yard, because I want shipbuilding to be retained in Scotland, so it is really important that we make progress there.

The point that I made to Michael Marra was that one of the reasons for the cost overrun is the same reason why many infrastructure projects have had cost overruns, which is construction inflation running at 25 per cent at the height of last summer. That is not to make excuses; it is to give some context as to why some of the costs are overrunning. There are other complexities at Ferguson’s that the committee will be well aware of.

I am not sure that taking everything on the basis of what the country can afford, in its bluntest sense, is the best starting point. The starting point needs to be what priority is being given in a difficult financial environment. I can say that social care is a key priority. You made the point about unlocking some of our systems: you could not find a better example of where that needs to happen than the money that is tied up in health. People are in hospital when they do not need to be there, are going into hospital when they do not need to go or sometimes end up in long-term care when they could have remained at home for longer.

It is also important that we do not lose housing to second homes and short-term lets. That is one of the issues that came up at the travelling Cabinet. People are concerned about the loss of homes for local people.

On the block grant, you will excuse me if my time and focus are more tied up with the immediate term. Next year, we will be wrestling with a real-terms decrease in the block grant. The forecast beyond that is that we will begin to see a bit of improvement by 2027-28, but, in capital, we will see a real-terms reduction right the way through to 2027-28. I need to focus on the here and now of what that looks like in terms of the extremely difficult and challenging decisions that we have to make.

We have just had a travelling Cabinet—it was the first one since the pandemic—over in Argyll and Bute, where we met a lot of local organisations and businesses. There is no doubt that there are challenges around infrastructure investment, digital connectivity, housing and jobs, and in making sure that the west and rural Scotland get a fair crack of the whip in migration and people coming. How do you attract people to live and work in areas that would otherwise suffer depopulation?

Some really good things are happening. I visited an affordable housing project in Dunbeg, where 300 affordable homes have been built for the local population. That will enable people to remain living in the area in homes that they can afford. The people to whom I spoke were previously in the private rented sector, paying costs that they struggled to afford. That makes a huge difference, because they are able to remain working in the local area. Those homes are energy efficient, so they are also able to afford their fuel bills, which is important. We need to see more of that.

We have put money aside for the key worker housing scheme through the affordable housing supply programme, in which we work with local businesses. Perhaps they are trying to recruit labour, whether they are a fish farm or in the hospitality sector, and are finding it difficult, partly because of the housing situation. How can we work with local businesses to look for available land and joint solutions, to make sure that we do not lose people from rural communities and that we get people to live and work there as well? There is not one solution; all those things will be important in addressing that very live and important issue.

Yes, but it would have covered the vast bulk of it. It will not surprise you to hear that we asked for more borrowing capacity. However, it was a negotiation, so there had to be compromise. It is really important that we will be able to cover whatever negative tax reconciliation there will be. We asked for a longer repayment term and, again, we had to give ground, because we did not win that particular argument, but we won the argument on the use of the index per capita methodology. That is quite important for our budget, given the issue of population.

There are areas that we still need to work on, such as VAT assignment. We agreed that those areas would take longer to work through because of the potential unintended consequences of having responsibility but no levers. That was a worry for us.

Traditional capital is obviously cheaper than borrowing or other options. However, when it comes to either being able to do projects or not, the questions are different, so we need to take them in the round. Some of the considerations will include the nature of the project, how long it will take to deliver and how complex it is. All those things need to be assessed against where they leave us with the revision to the capital spending review that we will bring forward as part of the budget process. However, we will lay out why we have come to some of those decisions. Alison, I can see that you want to come in.

Thanks very much, convener. I will be brief.

Thank you for the invitation to join the committee today. I welcome the opportunity to discuss the preparations for the 2024-25 budget. I am aware of the committee’s long-standing interest in transparency, and I recognise the importance of my appearance here to engage with the committee in advance of the budget.

With the 2024-25 budget, the Scottish Government will look to deliver the vision that has been set out by the First Minister in the policy prospectus and the programme for government. We will be clear. We will be anti-poverty and pro-fair and green growth, and focused on delivering high-quality public services.

We also need to recognise the challenges that Scotland’s public finances face, including the economic shocks that we have faced over the past three years: sustained high inflation, the war in Ukraine, the fallout from the United Kingdom’s mini-budget last year, Brexit and the on-going impact of the Covid pandemic. The budget will be a budget of difficult decisions. In making those decisions, we will be required to address the scale of the challenges that our public finances face.

I met the Chief Secretary to the Treasury at the finance interministerial standing committee on 20 September. We had a frank conversation in which we discussed the current economic and fiscal context alongside the Welsh minister for finance and officials from the Northern Ireland Executive. It was made clear to the chief secretary that the UK Government needs to provide sufficient support to the devolved Governments to ensure that we can adequately manage the pressures arising from those challenges.

I can confirm that the Government intends to publish the draft budget on 19 December. I would like to reiterate the reasons behind that decision.

We are restricted in our planning for the budget by the timings of the UK Government’s autumn statement and the accompanying Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts. The agreement between the Scottish Government and Parliament to deliver a budget within three weeks of a UK Government fiscal event was made at a time when fewer policy and tax options were available to the Government. The forecasting produced by the Scottish Fiscal Commission is therefore now significantly more complex, as are the associated decisions to be made by ministers. Adhering to the three-week timeline is therefore no longer practically possible, unfortunately. However, I am keen to deliver a December budget. Our proposed date of 19 December ensures that we will lose only one sitting day of Parliament. I hope that the committee will agree that that is a reasonable compromise that will provide sufficient time for the scrutiny and passage of the budget bill once Parliament returns from recess.

I look forward to answering members’ questions. I am happy to confirm that I will make myself available to the committee throughout the budget bill process.