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The net position is a product of two sets of forecasts from the SFC and the Office for Budget Responsibility. Revenue from Scottish income tax is forecast to grow strongly and raise a record £20.5 billion in 2025-26, which is £745 million more than the SFC forecast when last year’s Scottish budget was published. At the same time, the OBR has significantly revised up its forecast on income tax in the rest of the UK. Given the way in which the framework works, what you set out is the outcome.

We are committed to growing our economy, and the income tax net position is forecast to increase in each year of the forecast horizon. That is a positive, but that positive net position has been moderated by the OBR’s forecast revision.

First, some of the investments in the budget are being made to help to grow the economy. Investment in green energy, enterprise, affordable housing, transport and major infrastructure will help to boost the economy and, in particular, the construction sector.

Before I move on to colleges, I note that there are some very positive signs in the Scottish economy, despite the challenges that we have just rehearsed. Productivity has grown, compared with the position in the rest of the UK, and gross domestic product per capita has grown faster in Scotland than it has in the rest of the UK since 2007. We have higher levels of inward investment—a record number of foreign direct investments—and we are very strong in key sectors of the economy. That is not to minimise the OBR’s point about relative stronger growth, but the underlying Scottish economy has improved markedly and it is important to recognise that. In terms of—

I think that that might be quite controversial.

I could cite to you a number of decisions that Labour councils have made that I do not find particularly appetising, and I am sure that you would not want to criticise the performance of those councils. So, I will not pick out the decision making of a particular council, because that council will have made a range of decisions, some of which you and I will agree with and some of which we might not agree with. You could say that about all 32 councils.

Much to my frustration sometimes, changes to funding formulas are down to the 32 local authorities making decisions about how funding should be provided. The only decision that I have made is about the funding floor, which takes account of census data on shifts in population, which I cannot ignore. Apart from the overall Government settlement, that is one of the areas in which I make decisions.

However, anything about distribution formulas comes down to the vagaries of how COSLA makes its decisions. If I were to step in to that area and say, “I don’t like the decision you’ve made on the distribution formula because it doesn’t benefit this council or that council,” I would probably get short shrift, and not just from COSLA—I imagine that there would be questions in the chamber of the Parliament about it as well. Those things must be looked at in the round.

I think that we have said in the tax strategy that the rates will be frozen for the duration of this parliamentary term. Is that right, Lorraine?

If we were to do the same with above-inflation increases to the lower rates, that would impact on the intermediate rate in a positive way.

If that is what I said, that should be the case. I can feel that there is a “but” coming, though, so let us have the “but”.

I will come back to you on that, unless one of my officials has the answer now. I want to be correct, so I will come back with the detail on it.

I was not, beyond what I have just outlined. The BANS series is coming to an end, and there is going to be a publication thereafter.

Is there a line in the budget or an intention to do something new in that space? There is nothing in the budget that would indicate that, beyond the spend on civil service time in Angus Robertson’s team, as I have already mentioned. That is how it has been for quite some time.

We are investing in wealth-creating areas, as we can see from our very strong performance. I will correct this if I am wrong, but I think that, according to a survey, business confidence was up by about 13 per cent. There is a strong underlying base in the Scottish economy. Are there issues? Yes, there certainly are. We need to ensure that the skills gap is addressed and that our skills match the needs of our economy, but some very strong performance underlies some of that.

On college budgets, the budget delivers an uplift in the resource funding that is available to the college and university sectors. I think that there is a £13 million uplift for further education and that the budget for higher education is also increasing by £13 million. Therefore, there is an uplift in the resource budget for colleges.

The decrease in college capital—if you take the two together, that is where the figure is coming from—reflects the profile of spend on significant campus investments that are coming to an end, such as the Dunfermline campus. College capital has peaked, but there is a more than £13 million—2.1 per cent—uplift in the resource budget.

I absolutely agree that there is a need to better join up the work of Skills Development Scotland and colleges and to ensure that the offer from colleges and the SDS meets the needs of the economy and employers. The Withers review was very much in that space, regarding the need for the sector to be far more joined up and more sharply focused, which is the Government’s ambition. I am happy to provide further information about some of the on-going work in that space if that would be helpful to the committee.