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Good morning, cabinet secretary—it is good to see you in this role.

I have one general question, then two questions on energy. First, what do you view as being the biggest risk to Scotland in terms of achieving its net zero targets? What are you most pessimistic about, and what are you most optimistic about?

On the issue of demography—and differentiating between labour shortages and skills shortages—what analysis has the Fraser of Allander Institute undertaken of Scotland’s pre-existing pre-pandemic demographic challenges? What are your forecasts for future labour availability? To what extent are we focusing on skills when we should be focusing on labour issues?

Good morning. I want to look ahead and cover the topic of just transition, as well as demography and labour issues.

It was very welcome to see the Scottish Government’s document “Just Transition—A Fairer, Greener Scotland: Scottish Government response”, which it published yesterday in response to the just transition commission’s report. There is obviously a big challenge in ensuring that we have the skills that we need for the transition, and that a just transition takes place. I was pleased to see that there is a skills guarantee agreement in the just transition response. That is good, but my concern is how we ensure that we have the appropriate skills, at scale, for what is required.

Perhaps the witnesses—Nora Senior, in particular—can consider aspects such as working with employers, industrial training boards and our skills provision. Who is taking responsibility for mapping the existing skills that many of our energy workers have in order to move them into new sectors? Is there a sense of ownership of that? To what extent is it being left as almost a free market operation? What changes are needed to deliver that in the future?

We might not know what all those future jobs might be, but we certainly know what some of the more immediate ones are. Who is taking responsibility for the mapping of the skills that, for example, oil and gas industry workers have, which could be translated into the future of renewable energy? Who is taking ownership of ensuring that that happens?

With regard to retrofitting, which you mentioned, we do not need to ask what will be required, because we know what will be required. Again, who is taking responsibility for ensuring that we have not only the skills base that we need but the volume of workers that we will need to deliver what was in the programme for government yesterday?

I should perhaps declare an interest as the representative of the most populous constituency in the whole of Scotland—I have more constituents than anybody else. However, I am very concerned about the demographic outlook.

Perhaps I can get a final word from Nora Senior on future investment by employers and on Scotland’s position as an attractive place for cutting-edge companies to come and do business or make future proposals in. What is the outlook for not just demography but skills? Do you have an overview of the future that you want to share with us?

This question may be only for Jim Skea, on this occasion. It is about the idea of offshoring, how we translate that on a global basis and how the world looks at what fairness is in a global context. That is the big picture for COP26.

Your report mentions the idea of a potential global carbon tax for offshoring. Has the commission done much work on that? What are your personal views on how we can broaden the issue of just transition to be not only a national issue, and the international dimension of it?

We could perhaps explore that a bit more if you want to follow up.

Could Professor Skea come in on that?

I thank you for your work on the commission and for your report, “A National Mission for a fairer, greener Scotland”. This committee’s wanting to hear from you in our second meeting is evidence of the importance that we place on a just transition.

I want to focus on industrial transitions. We know that the 2045 target will be tough and that the 2030 target is even tougher. You have talked about tensions. If we are to deliver on the targets, it might be imperative that we focus on one sector as opposed to another. How do you see the sectoral approach, given that you called for just transition plans in each sector? How do we raise the game for all sectors while trying to meet the targets?

I have a question for Dave Moxham, and Professor Skea may then want to come in. I know that other colleagues will want to come on to specific sectors, but I am interested in the “how” of delivery, given that skills and reskilling are central.

Over the past year, we have gone through an experience whereby we have probably had unprecedented work between unions and employers in dealing with the pandemic. That approach, of bringing employers and unions together to tackle this and to come up with skills transition, strikes me as something that could be very positive.

On the idea of mapping the different skills needed in different sectors, a lot of skills and retraining is very individualised now—a lot of private providers do it on that basis, and there is a lot of responsibility on individual workers in different sectors to do it themselves. How do we do that collectively? Dare I say it that historical vested interests are, understandably, involved in some aspects of the protection of the high standards that are necessary in different sectors for working in what are, quite often, very challenging circumstances. What is your advice on how we can make sure that, as part of those individual sectoral transitions, skills and retraining are developed in a way that is meaningful, bearing in mind that it looks as if money, resource and commitment are there? It is about the “how” and the delivery.