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Tom Arthur brings to mind a story that I have been told more than once: when someone did not call at the local shop for a few days, the shopkeeper went to find out whether they were all right, because they knew that something was very wrong if it was an elderly or infirm person. That is another example of how important small businesses are in the social system of a community.

Further to that exchange, I advise the cabinet secretary that my proposed bill on the welfare of dogs is shortly to be presented to the Parliament. Its purpose is responsible dog ownership—in other words, the tackling of demand as a way of dealing with the supply of the illegal trade. I associate myself with the exchange with Jamie Greene. In so far as it is possible, I seek to stop online purchase from sites such as Gumtree. Although the cabinet secretary does not have the relevant portfolio responsibility, I ask whether he looks forward—as I do—to Scottish Government support for my bill.

I am trying to find out where the answer to that question is. Members could just fill in time a little bit.

All recycling bins are colour coded, and they include the text and symbols recommended by Zero Waste Scotland, which is the not-for-profit environmental organisation funded by the Scottish Government and the European regional development fund. John Mason can therefore check on its website. Those standard colours, symbols and texts should be consistent across Scotland, and they help individuals, including Mr Mason, to recognise the same bin and waste streams at home, work, and out and about. There is also a guide to our recycling bin system on our intranet site, and there are regular communications about waste and recycling.

I am sure that Mr Mason will improve.

The cabinet secretary will be aware of the trial involving NHS Grampian, a local energy charity and an energy innovation hub. The health board has identified at least 300 people who require assistance with their energy bills because of their serious ill health and related requirements.

I have a constituent who is at home on life-support equipment, and their monthly bill will rise from £347 to £624 on 1 December and to over £1,000 next year. Does the cabinet secretary consider that other health boards should follow NHS Grampian and consider such interventions?

To ask the Scottish Government when it last met NHS Lothian and NHS Borders. (S6O-01599)

I thank John Mason for his rubbish question. [Laughter.] Apologies—I thank him for his question on rubbish. I also thank my colleagues for their efforts in segregating materials for recycling. We achieved a recycling rate of 81 per cent in 2021-22, which is a significantly higher rate than most public sector bodies achieved.

I do indeed accept that. The OBR has also said that Brexit’s impact on the economy is now “adverse” over the medium term, to the tune of 4 per cent of gross domestic product. This is massive self-harm. Not a week passes without cries of protest from traders, truckers, farmers, hoteliers, care homes, scientists and even performing artists. Trade bureaucracy has soared. Every exported cow needs a veterinary certificate and unskilled labour has dried up, and all of that is impacting on the UK economy.

Public opinion has now swung dramatically against Brexit, with just 32 per cent still in favour and 56 per cent regretting leaving. When there are rumblings in the Tory ranks about Swiss-style deals and mutterings from the Confederation of British Industry about the need for changes to rules for migrants to enable them to work here, we know that even the Tories who are wedded to the ideology of Brexit—Rishi Sunak is right up there—can no longer delude us that Brexit is just the ticket. However, Rishi Sunak has to keep his party together, foremost especially the uber-Brexiteers, who include himself—and to pot with the rest of us.

Although the Bank of England, in its November monetary policy report, says that the major contributor to current levels of inflation is the global increase in gas, and therefore energy prices, it also highlights the impact of

“Non-energy tradable goods prices”.

Those are driven partly by global factors, such as the bottlenecks in international supply chains since the pandemic and disruption that is linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but also by costs associated with Brexit.

To quote from The Guardian,

“To state the obvious, the war in Ukraine and pandemic-related supply issues are sending prices soaring across the world, but what gives Britain a particularly pronounced problem—which forecasters say will endure into the immediate future, while inflation in the eurozone starts to fall—is Brexit. Our departure from the EU has weakened the pound, which increases the prices of imports, and adds to companies’ costs. Post-Brexit limitations on foreign workers are also hitting firms’ bottom lines, as are problems with the UK’s European supply chains ... Adam Posen, an American economist and a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, said that 80% of the explanation for Britain’s higher inflation was bound up with Brexit and its endless complexity. It amounted, he said, to ‘a trade war the UK declared on itself’.”

While living standards are under immense pressure around the globe this year as a result of record inflation, in particular in food and energy prices, officials said that Britain would suffer more as a direct result of leaving the EU.

There is more bad news. Even before the economic disaster that was Truss, it is estimated that, between 2016 and 2021, Brexit cost the UK £31 billion. The equivalent for Scotland is £2.5 billion. For Scottish Borders Council, that is £53 million, and for Midlothian Council it is £43 million.

Keir Starmer is no help, battered by his past flip-flops on the subject, and rejecting any easing for a single market, in which he is not in line with public opinion. Neither are the Liberal Democrats. For them all, Brexit is done and dusted and we must make what we can of it.

In 2014, we were told that a yes vote for independence would see us thrown out of the EU. It is ironic, is it not, that we were dragged out, despite 62 per cent voting remain, and by a party that currently holds only six Scottish seats. That lie will not fly again. Already, support for independence is on the rise as the Scottish people see the inadequacies of UK economic policies. Tomorrow, we will learn of the UK Supreme Court judgment. However that goes, I know that, sooner rather than later, Scotland will regain its independence. Brexit was the final straw.

Let us start at the very beginning: the European Union referendum vote in 2016. The vote across the United Kingdom was close, rounded up to 52 per cent voting leave to 48 per cent voting remain. In Scotland, the figures were 62 per cent voting remain and 38 per cent voting leave. Interestingly, by way of an aside, Northern Ireland voted 56 per cent remain.

In Scotland, every constituency voted remain, including in the Scottish Borders and Midlothian. That was in the face of an aggressive and ill-informed campaign blaming the EU for all ills and promising not just the infamous side-of-a-bus £350 million a week for the national health service, but more. We were promised that being tariff free would mean that bureaucracy would be cut, but was it? There is increased paperwork—for example, truckers need import and export declarations, security declarations and other paperwork for their shipments. New infrastructure is needed at ports to deal with queues and to check loads, and there are vast lorry parks.

The trading world was to be our oyster, despite the fact that even Barack Obama said that the UK would be at the “back of the queue”, which is where it is, and where it has stayed. There were no favours waiting for the UK. The one new deal, with Australia, has infuriated farmers and was even criticised by George Eustice, who was then the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. The reality is that most British trade is with Europe, and Brexit has crippled it.

We were promised that migration would be under control, as the UK “took back control”—more of that later, as it impacts on our economy. The UK then cut itself off from its biggest trading partner, the EU, where 40 per cent of its exports went, and for what?

The answer is: for the highest inflation among the G7 countries, which is currently running at 11 per cent, with food inflation at nearly 17 per cent. With regard to how UK inflation compares with inflation in other nations, recent analysis from the Financial Times shows that the rate of consumer price inflation is higher in the UK than it is in other devolved economies. It rose to 11.1 per cent in October 2022 in the UK, in comparison with 10.4 per cent in Germany, 7.7 per cent in the USA, 6.2 per cent in France and 3 per cent in Japan. A member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee noted, in a recent appearance before the Treasury Select Committee, that Brexit has added 6 per cent to UK food prices.

Yes, Covid had a price tag, and the war in Ukraine is having an impact on the UK economy, but Brexit is why it is doing so badly. Even before Brexit, the economy was weak, after nearly a decade of Tory government. If we add in Covid, Ukraine and Trussonomics, that is a heady mix for failure. That is bad enough, but when we add in the basic ingredient, the Boris Brexit, that explains much more.

Members should not take my word for it that Brexit has had a devastating impact on the UK economy. The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts that the UK will suffer the sharpest decline of any European nation, with a drop in growth of 1.4 per cent in 2023. That can be compared with small independent countries that are similar to Scotland, such as Ireland, which will see their economies grow by around 3 per cent next year.

I apologise for not taking an intervention from Edward Mountain in my speech, which I had to cut considerably.

I respect what Edward Mountain says. Will he address the issue, which is whether Brexit has contributed to high inflation across the UK?

The Auditor General for Scotland said that there has been a 30 per cent increase in capital costs in Scotland directly as a result of Brexit. Can the minister advise us how that will impact on extending the Borders railway line through Hawick and beyond?