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To some degree, it is difficult for me to speculate, but a range of information is certainly available, including from the Scottish Sentencing Council, to show that all prison groups are, on average, serving longer sentences. It is an across-the-board sentencing issue; inflation is how I would describe it.

It is also due to the nature of offences. Prosecutors and the Crown are now more successful in pursuing historical sexual offences and more people have the confidence to come forward about such offences.

In addition, the profile of prisoners is changing in that there are more long-term prisoners and more sex offenders.

Thanks. I am listening very carefully to Mr Kerr, as always. It is important that we critique the past as well as debating the future. However, what does Mr Kerr propose that we do right now instead of early emergency release, bearing in mind the fact that time-limited relief is required right now? What does he suggest that we do? Is he seriously suggesting that we do nothing and ignore the advice from the Scottish Prison Service, HMIPS, the Prison Governors Association and the POA? We all want longer-term action, but action is required right now. Are you seriously proposing that we do nothing?

We are continuing to engage with partners on all of that. It is important to stress that the phasing of the tranches of release is important in managing that pressure on the community. No additional financial resource was provided when we undertook the emergency early release programme last summer. Nonetheless, there are weekly planning meetings, because it is absolutely imperative for our local partners, and for individuals who are being released, that such planning is done. At the start of this journey, I met representatives of the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities and others, and we will continue to have close engagement.

I refer members to my opening statement.

I move,

That the Criminal Justice Committee recommends that the Early Release of Prisoners (Scotland) Regulations 2025 [draft] be approved.

That is a fair comment. I would certainly like to see more people being proactively involved and included in the victim notification scheme, and we are working with partners to improve awareness. I acknowledge the relatively low take-up rate for the victim notification scheme, but people do not need to register for the scheme in order to get information about the perpetrator in their case, because they can contact the Scottish Prison Service directly or can receive information via a victim support organisation.

We have the Victims, Witnesses, and Justice Reform (Scotland) Bill and other work that is in train, particularly through the victims task force, so there is a body of work going on to improve the victim notification scheme. That work should be considered because it is germane to any developments regarding long-term prisoners—indeed, it is important even if there are no developments in the management of those prisoners. There is a body of work to show that we are committed to improving the victim notification scheme. However, there are other routes that allow people to get the information that they need when it comes to emergency early release.

Absolutely. It is deputy governors who chair their establishment’s risk management committees, and they would have access to absolutely the same information from the police, social work and other sources.

Ms Medhurst, do you wish to add anything?

I have nothing further to add.

I move,

That the Criminal Justice Committee recommends that the First-tier Tribunal for Scotland General Regulatory Chamber (Police Appeals) (Procedure) Regulations 2025 [draft] be approved.

That the Criminal Justice Committee recommends that the First-tier Tribunal for Scotland General Regulatory Chamber Police Appeals and Upper Tribunal for Scotland (Composition) Regulations 2025 [draft] be approved.

That the Criminal Justice Committee recommends that the First-tier Tribunal for Scotland (Transfer of Functions and Members of the Police Appeals Tribunal) Regulations 2025 [draft] be approved.

Motions agreed to.

The issue for us all as parliamentarians is that, if we do not want to find ourselves constantly facing the necessity to make decisions that provide short-term relief, we have to step up to the debate and to the challenge of being prepared to discuss, engage with and work through the longer-term reforms that are needed.

It is fair to say that, for a very long time, along with the rest of the United Kingdom, Scotland has been an outlier in the sense of having a very high prison population per capita, compared with other jurisdictions. I would dispute that it has all been predictable, because there have been changes in recent times. You touched on the complexity, which certainly seems to have increased post-Covid. The remand population is higher than it was pre-Covid. Therefore, some changes were not predictable, and, with regard to the rate of increase, although we have had many periods of a high prison population, it has been stabilised at quite a high level; I am on the record as saying that it is too high. With regard to the recent rate of increase, we have seen the population shooting up by more than 250 in short weeks or short months; we experienced that at some point last year.

We are improving our understanding of the demand that is coming our way. Much work has been done by the criminal justice board. People can gather lots of data, but what we require is data that supports the justice system as a whole.

I reiterate my point that I have never described emergency early release as anything other than providing short-term relief. I have always been entirely candid about that. I have always been candid about the impact of any intervention that has been proposed. There have been several interventions, not all of which were unanimously approved by people around this table. The fact that there is not just one contributory factor—one issue or one problem that drives up our prison population—means that there must be more than one solution. The Government has always been frank, and whether it was home detention curfew regulations, which come in next month, regulations in relation to foreign nationals, regulations around GPS, the investment in community justice, or the work that is being done to increase capacity in our prisons, we have not presented anything in isolation as getting any of us off the hook with regard to the longer-term and more radical reform that is needed.

Will you give way again?

It is fair to raise that point, because I ran out of time in the chamber and did not address it fully, if at all. If you recall, we consulted on long-term prisoners. I am trying to remember whether that was last summer or the summer before—[Interruption.] It was in 2024. We consulted because we wanted to consider the issue and seek views from victim support organisations and from those who work in the field.

You will be well aware that long-term prisoners are subject to the parole process, so there is a complexity to any change to their release arrangements. As someone who used to work with long-term prisoners and write parole reports, I am more than aware of the risk profile that is associated with long-term prisoners.

There is a question—and it is a question on which I have an open mind—whether, if the prison population were to be reduced further and there were fewer short-term prisoners, thus enabling more rehabilitative work to be done with long-term prisoners, we would have the balance right for long-term prisoners who have determinate sentences, by which I mean those people who are returning to our community at some point. Is there a question in there about better progression and better step-down facilities, and about the balance of how much of their sentence they spend in custody and how much they spend under strict licence conditions—perhaps even electronic monitoring—and under the threat of recall?

There are concerns about prisoners who do not qualify for parole and are released automatically six months before the end of their sentence. They could have served several years. Does that serve the public well, in terms of testing, managing and preparing for release people who are eventually going to return to our communities? That is an argument on which we should have an open mind, at least.

The consultation definitely showed us that, because of the risk profile, any change to how long-term prisoners are managed cannot be made in the short term. It is not something to be done as an emergency measure. It needs to be consulted on and planned for, and additional investment would need to be made in community justice social work, for example. The increase in the number of those in the long-term population—that part of the population who require statutory social work input—means that community justice social work is facing considerable demand, given the statutory work that it has to do for the Parole Board for Scotland and so on. It therefore cannot be an emergency measure.

We will have to wait and see what the sentencing and penal policy commission comes back with. I am merely saying that I am aware of the potential benefits, but I am also aware of the risks and the investment that would need to be coupled with any change to how long-term prisoners are managed.

The short answer is that I have an open mind. I know what I am in favour of: community justice, home detention curfews and expanded use of electronic monitoring for those who are on community disposals and, indeed, those who are leaving prison. I am also very much in favour of making best use of the estate, and we have increased its capacity. I want to replace old and crumbling buildings and ensure that HMP Highland and HMP Glasgow are delivered.

Beyond the prisons that we are committed to building and beyond modernising the estate, I am not in favour of building our way out of this, because if we build, they will come. We already have a prison population of 8,400, and the challenge is to get to a more sustainable population, because that is in the interests of public safety.