Seòmar agus comataidhean

I am sorry to encroach on the love-in between the Lib Dems and the nationalists, but as a result of the Scottish National Party’s brutal business rates regime, many of Scotland’s pubs are calling last orders for the final time and, as Innis & Gunn warned yesterday, those pubs that survive are being forced—reluctantly—to hike prices to eye-watering levels. Is John Swinney happy to be remembered as the First Minister who forced hard-working Scots to pay £10 a pint?

I will not give way.

Will the member take an intervention?

The only place where this—

I do not know who has rattled Mr Swinney’s cage, but it is certainly rattled.

The only person the budget appears to add up for is Shona Robison, because she initially thought that it provided her with nearly enough coverage to get out the door in May, but analysts have warned that that will not hold. Whoever replaces her will, almost inevitably, be forced back to the Parliament with an emergency statement to fix the mistakes that she has made. [Interruption.]

Let us look at some of the detail in Shona Robison’s plans. The Government insists that it is properly funding our NHS, but do not take my word for it. David Phillips from the Institute for Fiscal Studies says that funding allocations for health in 2026-27 look—and I quote, Mr Swinney—“increasingly detached from reality.” Excluding social care pay, health and social care funding is up by only 1.6 per cent in cash terms, but down by 0.6 per cent in real terms. Agenda for change staff are due a pay increase of 3.75 per cent and resident doctors have been awarded 9.4 per cent. Something serious will have to give at the front line of our NHS.

No, I do not have time.

The cabinet secretary has repeatedly claimed that the budget offers a fair deal for Scotland’s councils, but COSLA begs to differ. It has admitted that some services that are offered that are “critical to population health” will be slashed this April. Despite her claims, for the period that is covered by the budget and the spending review, councils are set to see a real-terms cut in their cash settlement. That means more cuts and higher bills, not just this year but right through to the end of the decade. Therefore, is it any wonder that the Accounts Commission has warned that, combined, Scotland’s 32 local authorities face a budget black hole of nearly £1 billion by 2027, which is 500 times more than the £28 million that the Government has come forward with today? That means that there is a real risk of Scotland’s councils collapsing into bankruptcy by the end of the decade, while council tax bills for hard-working Scots are set to climb.

It is not just council tax that will rise as a result of this bad SNP budget. Yet again, the SNP is reaching for the only lever that it ever pulls: clobbering middle-income earners with higher income tax bills. By the end of the decade, one in three Scots will be paying the SNP’s higher rate of tax. A tax that is intended for the few will be paid by the many. Why is tax soaring in Scotland? Under the SNP, the benefits bill is, frankly, out of control. By the end of the decade, SNP ministers will be spending £10 billion on social security. The truth is that the SNP is happy to park people on benefits, many with treatable mental health conditions, because the culture of dependency creates political advantage for John Swinney. It is the crudest form of vote buying. It is cynical, unsustainable and, frankly, wrong.

The minister and I do not agree on much of what he has said. Research by the Scottish Government shows that behavioural changes are emerging as a result of the Scottish child payment, including parents turning down pay increases, working less or putting more money into pension salary sacrifice schemes. Is the best way to lift children out of poverty not their parents having good, well-paid jobs rather than turning down work?

I do not have time.

The sad fact is that this dismal budget will pass in the Parliament because Scottish Labour is too weak, too divided, and too distracted to stand up to the SNP. The SNP Government has shown itself unfit for office, but Scottish Labour has shown itself as incapable of real opposition. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats will back the budget, despite being conned last year by the broken promise of no spending on independence. In a smoke-filled room somewhere in Bute house, post-election promises are no doubt being made. Alex Cole-Hamilton will be measuring the curtains along the ministerial corridors. The man who bought a Tesla and then sold it to virtue signal is eyeing up the Government’s car fleet.

Beyond the cosy left-wing consensus and the dubious deal making, people out there in the real world are looking for a new approach.

I would not want our party’s name associated with anything in this budget because, at the end of the day, this Scottish Government—[Interruption.]

Will Jamie Greene take an intervention?

Daniel Johnson (Edinburgh Southern) (Lab) rose—