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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 6 November 2025
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Displaying 982 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

Craig Hoy

Another risk relates to what happens as a result of decisions taken by the UK Government. The MTFS refers to one issue, which is domestic demographics. However, defence spending could ride a coach and horses through the UK budget, which would have a consequence here. Given the global economic and defence security position, you get the impression that defence expenditure is likely to rise rather than fall as a percentage of the UK budget. What risks are there for devolved areas of expenditure if the UK Government has to cut front-line public spending in the rest of the UK?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

Craig Hoy

Good morning. Quite a lot of the ground that I had intended to cover has been covered. However, I have a question for Professor Roy about the form, function and frequency of the various reports that the committee looks into.

We criticised the delay to the medium-term financial strategy. We are now having a spending review which, if it was going to be warts and all and completely open and frank, we probably would not want to have on the eve of a Scottish parliamentary election. From your vantage point, could more be done in the next parliamentary session to streamline the process and declutter the number of reports and strategies, so that we get a much clearer impression of where Scotland’s public finances are?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

Craig Hoy

You said in the fiscal update that ending fiscal transfers would improve the scrutiny and functioning of the Scottish budget, as they have serious material effects, particularly on the health, education and local government portfolios. From your discussions with the Scottish Government, why do you think that it is so reluctant to make what would seem like a relatively modest and sensible change to the way in which it presents its accounts?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

Craig Hoy

You have a presumption against it.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

Craig Hoy

But surely if you set a 9 per cent pay policy and you are at 7-plus per cent after two years, with inflation running at more than 3 per cent—and it could be higher or lower by the time that we get to the third year of the negotiation—you are effectively saying that your negotiating position is nil, because you are not willing to countenance strike action. Therefore, the public sector unions have you over a barrel, have they not?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

Craig Hoy

But—

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

Craig Hoy

This question is more about the costs between now and the end of the decade. You have set public pay policy at 9 per cent over the next three years. In the first two years, the figure has exceeded 7.4 per cent in some areas. Obviously, you will not be in post, but, thinking beyond the election, how rigid will the Government be in the remainder of the public sector pay negotiations? Are you now saying that, if the level is presently running at 7.4 per cent, then 1.6 per cent is the limit, or are you willing to breach your own public sector pay policy?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

Craig Hoy

You have achieved £300 million of savings, and you are now proposing a figure of £2 billion. I want to look at some of the risks that your civil servants have identified. The document that I have says:

“There is a risk that by focussing workforce reductions on corporate functions we reduce capacity to develop and implement the changes required within functions to deliver savings”.

Effectively, that means that if you get rid of those people, you potentially get rid of the capacity to make the efficiency savings that you desire to make.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

Craig Hoy

As anybody who has run a business will realise, however, the first 5 per cent of savings is the easiest to achieve; it gets tougher as you cut in.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

Craig Hoy

Good morning, cabinet secretary. The convener has identified a number of the very real risks that run through the fiscal delivery plan. However, obviously, you are setting significant store on making savings of £2 billion—£1 billion through the public service reform targets that were set out by Ivan McKee on 19 June. When he made his statement to the Parliament, he said that his plan was “rooted in realism”, but

“not in a headline-grabbing way that simply throws out random targets”.—[Official Report, 19 June 2025; c57.]

You will be aware that we have received, through a freedom of information request, a significant body of paperwork relating to the preparations for that announcement. One key element that stands out is that there were significant concerns among both the civil servants and your Cabinet colleagues about the ability to achieve that £1 billion. I draw your attention to paragraph 17 on page 3 of a document that we received, which was dated 22 May, from the directorate for public service reform. It says:

“We have set out ... that there is not a specific breakdown of the £1 billion target and there is an element of risk in this approach.”

Was that “rooted in realism” or simply written on the back of a fag packet?