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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 16 June 2025
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Displaying 862 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Budget Process in Practice

Meeting date: 29 April 2025

Craig Hoy

Super. Thanks very much.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Budget Process in Practice

Meeting date: 29 April 2025

Craig Hoy

Pejoratively, I would say that the Government makes it up as it goes along.

You have called for the medium-term financial strategy to have a greater focus on how the funding gap will be closed. If the Government does not focus on that, where will we end up in two, five or 10 years’ time?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Budget Process in Practice

Meeting date: 29 April 2025

Craig Hoy

Would an example of that be the fact that, when the Government faced a shortfall in the recent budget, it took a scythe to housing and employability schemes, even though addressing those two areas is vital in eradicating poverty? Is that an example of the knee-jerk response that you are talking about?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability Report)

Meeting date: 29 April 2025

Craig Hoy

I want to briefly raise two more issues before I close. Inward migration is often seen as a panacea, but the OECD has pointed out one fundamental flaw in that, which is that the migrant population is ageing. Also, in the countries from where we would draw skilled talent, wage growth means that wages are catching up with wages here. There is also the moral dimension as to whether we should be recruiting qualified doctors from developing countries where they are needed.

Migration might help to sustain us over a period, but, if we look forward a decade or so, there could then be a change in the underlying migration patterns. Are we leaning too heavily on migration as the solution to our structural demographic problem?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Budget Process in Practice

Meeting date: 22 April 2025

Craig Hoy

Good afternoon. Professor Bell, you identify what I think is probably a clear disconnect or discord between the budget and other initiatives, such as the programme for government and the national performance framework. In relation to economic growth, you observe that, in the budget this year, there was an allocation of £15 million for an enterprise package but, beyond that, there was very little investment in measures to encourage growth. You identify that, in real terms, Scottish Enterprise, Highlands and Islands Enterprise and South of Scotland Enterprise have, in effect, had their budgets cut. That leads you to say:

“The overall effect of budget measures on economic growth would be extremely complex to evaluate, but there is a strong case for combining relevant expenditures and discussing plausible scenarios as to how these expenditures might together influence the desired outcome”,

which is higher economic growth. In effect, the budget is bust without that. Who should be doing that work? Should it be the Scottish Government or the Scottish Fiscal Commission, or could it be Professor Spowage? Clearly, there is a need for that to happen, because the fundamentals of the budget are looking particularly dicey at the moment.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Budget Process in Practice

Meeting date: 22 April 2025

Craig Hoy

Super. Thanks very much.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Budget Process in Practice

Meeting date: 22 April 2025

Craig Hoy

That is useful to know. Most of what I wanted to cover has been covered, but I want to ask about the old chestnut of in-year transfers across portfolios. In your submission, you repeat the argument that those transfers

“should be baselined rather than done on a recurring basis.”

You say that the Scottish Government should do that to allow more meaningful comparisons to be made across portfolios.

The cabinet secretary gave us her account of why that is not happening—she said that the money that is spent by schools that relates to health will first go into the health budget and then be transferred. Is that a decent reason for making such in-year transfers, or is there another reason why the Government likes having the ability to make such large cross-portfolio transfers?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Budget Process in Practice

Meeting date: 22 April 2025

Craig Hoy

I have a slightly more generic question, which relates to forecasting. What role is artificial intelligence likely to have in assisting you in the accuracy or the development of forecasting? Are you debating that in the organisation?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Budget Process in Practice

Meeting date: 22 April 2025

Craig Hoy

Finally, you will have seen in the submissions from the Chartered Institute of Taxation and the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland recommendations or calls for us to move to a system where we have a fiscal bill or a finance bill. My colleague Stephen Kerr said that a finance bill

“would consolidate tax and spending proposals into a single legislative package, providing a clearer, more coherent narrative of how revenue generation aligns with expenditure.”

From your perspective, based on your experience at Westminster and here, would that assist us in some way in tracking how the money is being spent and how tax aligns with expenditure?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Budget Process in Practice

Meeting date: 22 April 2025

Craig Hoy

You referred to the need to look more into departmental spending rather than look only at the headline figures in order to assess sustainability. The Scottish Government frequently says that there needs to be a pivot to preventative spend, particularly in relation to healthcare—indeed, the Scottish budget is predicated on that. Can you deploy any tools or benchmarks to assess whether there is actually a shift in portfolios towards preventative spending rather than dealing with the consequences of problems that are already there?