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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 9 March 2026
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Displaying 2095 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Michael Marra

:For 2026‑27, we will have another budget in which we are hoping that something comes along to bail out the Government before the end of the year. That is the distinct impression, is it not?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Michael Marra

:I will come back to those assumptions in a moment.

I am thinking about the broader legacy issues. We have talked quite a bit about ScotWind and how it has been drawn on at different times. As you have already said, it has proved quite useful to the Scottish Government as a second reserve. The reality, however, is that this has been created through a windfall. The political pressure is such that the Government is driving the budget to its limits every year, hoping that something comes along within the year to bail it out. That does not allow for any meaningful strategic planning. We heard that last week from those who are directly involved. It is not a particularly sustainable model for managing a budget, is it?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Michael Marra

:Yes.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Michael Marra

:There is a reasonable consensus that we are looking at a low-growth, high-debt global context with huge uncertainty over the decade to come. It just feels to me that our political economy is one of driving budgets beyond their reality and trying to balance them, with no real foresight as to how we might plan to deal with the imperatives that sit underneath, such as climate adaptation, ageing demographics and the pace of change. Does it not need a completely different model?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Michael Marra

:The external commentators—the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Fraser of Allander Institute, which you know well—are sceptical about the figures holding for the forthcoming year. They are both predicting the strong likelihood of there being an emergency budget, whoever forms the Government. Do you think that that is a likelihood?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Michael Marra

I return to this year’s budget. You are concerned about the Government’s pay policy. You mentioned in your report that most NHS Scotland staff will receive a 0.78 per cent pay rise. You clearly do not feel that the Government’s pay policy is sustainable. Is that the case?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Michael Marra

:To me, it feels slightly worse than that, though. If it was an existing fiscal flexibility, the Government would be driving to the extremity of that as well. It is because it is not an existing fiscal flexibility that the Government is using it as a real flexibility. If an increased borrowing capability was put in place, the Government would just max that out, wouldn’t it? That is the character of what it does.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Michael Marra

:We heard in evidence from the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government that she does not expect the spending review to last, and we heard evidence last week from various organisations in the public sector that said that they still do not have sight of or certainty about a budget. Is the spending review process performing its function correctly and adding grant certainty to allow public services to budget for their future? On one side, they are being told that the spending review is not going to work, and on the other side it is not giving them much certainty either.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Michael Marra

:That brings me back to our earlier conversation about whether the current model is fit for purpose in a world of radical uncertainty. It is not that the data is redundant, but it does not deal with the black swan events that are now far more common.

Is there a different model that the Government could use that would, in the long term, structure the devolved finances in the right way to deal better with the issues of radical uncertainty, given that you are highlighting as an institution some of the very long-term trends on climate change, the rate of technological progress and population dynamics? I would postulate that, globally, those are not results of the radical uncertainty but causes of it. However, what are we doing to shift that balance? Is there a different model that we could probe with the Government in discussing how it could approach the public finances to deal with that uncertainty?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Fiscal Sustainability)

Meeting date: 3 March 2026

Michael Marra

:I empathise with your economics qualification situation. I submitted my economics thesis at the London School of Economics and Political Science four weeks before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, so it felt like I had wasted all the money, frankly. However, all these years on, we are not really dealing with the consequences, so there is more for us to reflect on in that area.