Seòmar agus comataidhean

In relation to all aspects of our journey to net zero, I expect there to be changes and developments in the way in which we account for emissions, particularly in the natural world. You are absolutely right to highlight blue carbon. It is often said to me that our understanding of blue carbon is now at the stage that our understanding of peatland emissions was at five years ago. I expect advances in that regard, as well as advances in technology, so everything that we do has to be iterative.

I will round off my answer by saying that we are statutorily bound to seek the Climate Change Committee’s advice on such changes at least every five years. We will continue to follow the legislation in that regard, so I expect that there will be adjustments to be made as we move through our annual targets.

Absolutely. I want the science on blue carbon to develop. That is, in part, why we are funding research in our academic institutions and supporting projects such as Project Seagrass. That means that we will develop what I think we all agree will be a very important part of our carbon accounting and our journey to net zero, as the science is a little behind where it is in relation to the terrestrial space. I am very much behind that development, which will be a useful addition once we get to a settled position on blue carbon.

It will be published in due course.

I will waive that right, convener. I have said all that I wanted to say.

Good morning. I thank the committee for having me along to talk about the amendment regulations.

The instrument was drafted following advice from the Climate Change Committee—our statutory advisers—to modify our emissions targets through the 2020s. The modifications represent a technical adjustment to ensure that the targets in the 2020s remain consistent with the latest methodology for carbon accounting. The advice from the Climate Change Committee was received in December 2022, and it came after a request from the Scottish ministers to review our emissions reduction targets. That request was in line with section 2C of the 2009 act, which requires us to seek advice, at least every five years, from the Climate Change Committee to ensure that our targets are set at the right levels.

The CCC’s advice highlighted the need to ensure that our targets for the 2020s remain aligned with the significant revisions to international carbon accounting because of the recognition of the role of peatland restoration in reducing emissions. Currently, our targets through the 2020s are based on a legislative target of a 56 per cent reduction. That is based on advice that we received in 2017, and that advice is now outdated and undervalues the role of peatland restoration.

The methodological updates impact all four United Kingdom countries, but they have more of an impact in Scotland for two reasons. First, we have annual targets, whereas our colleagues in England and Wales have targets over longer periods. The second reason relates to how central peatland restoration is to our emissions reduction targets.

Ultimately, the CCC recommended that our annual targets from 2021 to 2029, which are set by a straight line from 2020, should be adjusted to align with the new international carbon accounting. As I said, the instrument responds directly to that recommendation.

I will make a final point in reinforcing what the Climate Change Committee has said. This is not a lowering of ambition; the 2030 target remains unchanged. This is just about reflecting better carbon accounting and developments in our understanding of peatland restoration. Our 2045 target remains unchanged, too.

Obviously, I take the Climate Change Committee’s advice very seriously. Its remarks in recent months and years have been constructively critical about the pathway. My view is that, overall, we are making good progress—we are more than halfway to net zero—but I am sure that the next phase of emissions reduction, particularly out to 2030, will include some of the most challenging parts of the journey that we have to go on.

What are we doing to respond to that? We will officially respond to the Climate Change Committee’s most recent advice in due course. Later this year, we will also lay a draft of the next full statutory climate change plan, which will look across Scotland’s economy and society and will demonstrate how emissions reductions will be achieved in sectors right across our economy. The plan will set the emissions pathway for each sector, and it will also include details of the costs and benefits of the policies that it contains. A draft of that full statutory plan will be laid in November.

I reiterate that, even though I am here today to talk about the annual changes, my view on the challenge has not changed whatsoever, and neither has the view of my colleagues. We are still very much planning out to 2030 and 2045.

You are absolutely right that the commitments—which are very stretching, particularly the target of a 75 per cent reduction in emissions by 2030—were set on a cross-party basis in the Parliament. I am keen to foster cross-party working as we agree our response. One way in which we are doing that is through a cross-party and cross-civic society group that is looking at the development of the climate change plan. The group was formerly chaired by Michael Matheson, and I will now take over that role. The group brings together stakeholders and MSPs from across the chamber to discuss key responses to climate change. I will continue those discussions right up to the point at which we publish the draft plan, which the Parliament will then consider and scrutinise.

I commend the SSI to the committee as it is a necessary step in maintaining the credibility of Scotland’s emissions accounting framework.

I move,

That the Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee recommends that the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 (Interim Target) Amendment Regulations 2023 [draft] be approved.

A lot of the work is still under development but, for the purposes of today, I point to the fact that we will respond precisely to that point in the Climate Change Committee’s advice very soon. That will be built into our climate change plan, a draft of which will be laid in November. Instead of, today, going into some of the detail of what my officials and I are developing, I would rather wait until we have published our response. At that point, I will be more than happy to discuss that with the committee.

That is absolutely right. I add that we cannot pretend that we know and can track with absolute certainty everything that will happen from now until 2045. Therefore, as with much of the climate change work and much of the portfolio, we have to be willing to adapt, to treat plans as iterative and to learn as we do, because that is the challenge of making policy over 20 or 25 years.

Mr Smyth asked whether we will monitor what is in the plan now and whether that will change. Yes, we intend to monitor, and Andy McCall set out how we will do that. However, we also have to realise that we must have scope for adaptation over the next 20 or 25 years, up to 2045.