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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 8 February 2026
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Displaying 1413 contributions

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Social Justice and Social Security Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 22 December 2022

Paul McLennan

That is really useful.

Social Justice and Social Security Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 22 December 2022

Paul McLennan

I appreciate that. Thank you.

Social Justice and Social Security Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 22 December 2022

Paul McLennan

Good morning, witnesses. It does not seem that long ago since you were last in front of us, and there are still the same issues. You touched on a couple of issues right at the start, one of which was the cost of uprating, which is included in the block grant adjustment. To what extent does inflation create a risk to the Scottish budget?

The second issue is the current level of uncertainty in inflation forecasts. You talked about the inflation rate being 11 per cent and it impacting people on lower incomes. Will you say a bit more about food inflation, in particular? Food inflation is predicted to be high, and it is already high. I ask Professor Roy to answer first.

Social Justice and Social Security Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 22 December 2022

Paul McLennan

Anecdotally, we have seen various forecasts and estimates that say that food inflation is probably nearer 15 per cent than 11 per cent and that the rate for other essentials is probably nearer 20 per cent than 11 per cent. We need to dive a little bit deeper into the impact on lower-paid people, in particular, because, proportionally, they have to spend more on food than anybody else. We must be aware of that when considering the issue.

Social Justice and Social Security Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 22 December 2022

Paul McLennan

Is the Fiscal Commission considering doing something more specific on that in the future? You said that, proportionately, it is a higher part of their income. Could the commission do a deeper dive into that and, for example, say that there is a more specific impact for people in a lower income decile? Again, that really impacts on the work of the committee. I know that we are talking anecdotally, but could the commission do a more specific piece of work on that?

Social Justice and Social Security Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 22 December 2022

Paul McLennan

I am asking you to avoid the politics. What would be your message to the two Governments? Without going into specific details, what are the key things that you would like them to discuss?

Social Justice and Social Security Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 22 December 2022

Paul McLennan

You mentioned the funding gap. I think that £881 million was forecast, but that figure has dropped slightly. Is there any specific reason for that? That is probably a question for Professor Roy.

Social Justice and Social Security Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 22 December 2022

Paul McLennan

I will touch on forecast accuracy. You have highlighted that the forecast error went from 4 per cent down to 2 per cent, and you mentioned two factors. Could you say more about that? Looking at the years ahead, how difficult or how much easier will that process be? You have touched on how you assess Government policy when you look at this. How is that working? Could the Government work more closely with you in that regard? What is the relationship in that respect? I know that there is meant to be a process of stepping back, but could there be closer working between you and the Scottish Government on the forecast element of things?

Social Justice and Social Security Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 22 December 2022

Paul McLennan

Professor Roy, I want to bring you back to the point that you made at the start of the meeting about the fiscal framework. I am interested in your thoughts on the fiscal framework. Part of the issue relates to the complexity of the existing fiscal framework, and I know that there are on-going discussions between the Scottish Government and the UK Government on the matter. What are the commission’s asks from those discussions? Given what you said about part of the issue being about the fiscal framework, what would make your life simpler in relation to your work? What are your asks? Obviously, there is a lot for the UK Government and the Scottish Government to discuss in relation to social security and so on, but what changes to the fiscal framework would make things easier for you?

Social Justice and Social Security Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2023-24

Meeting date: 22 December 2022

Paul McLennan

I have raised that issue with the committee, as other members know. It is very interesting and heartening to hear that.