The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.
All Official Reports of meetings in the Debating Chamber of the Scottish Parliament.
All Official Reports of public meetings of committees.
Displaying 1474 contributions
Local Government, Housing and Planning Committee
Meeting date: 14 June 2022
Paul McLennan
Maria, would you like to comment on what I asked about?
Social Justice and Social Security Committee
Meeting date: 9 June 2022
Paul McLennan
Good morning. My first question is on an issue that you touched on. Which Scottish Government policies are having the greatest impact on the forecasts and which are having the least impact?
Social Justice and Social Security Committee
Meeting date: 9 June 2022
Paul McLennan
That is helpful—thank you.
Social Justice and Social Security Committee
Meeting date: 9 June 2022
Paul McLennan
I will raise the issue of how we analyse that later, because you are right. In her opening remarks, Dame Susan referred to an increase of £300 million, some of which was due to modelling changes, with a certain element of inflation. Such changes, though small, can have a major impact. After all, we are talking about £200 million or £300 million—it can make a huge difference. How we analyse that going forward might be an issue that we need to take up.
Social Justice and Social Security Committee
Meeting date: 9 June 2022
Paul McLennan
I want to pick up on a point that Claire Murdoch made about consequentials, the decisions that are made by Westminster and how that can impact on your forecasting, which looks at the wider picture within the existing fiscal framework. Does the fiscal framework assist you and the Scottish Government in your forecasting? Obviously, that then impacts on the level of spend on social justice that can be considered.
I consider that the fiscal framework needs to be changed. However, in terms of the art of forecasting, does it help or hinder you? Is more being done as regards the fiscal framework? I think that obvious amendments are required to be made to it. That aside, does it help or hinder you in your forecasting role?
Social Justice and Social Security Committee
Meeting date: 9 June 2022
Paul McLennan
I am not trying to put words in your mouth, but does it need simplifying if that is the case?
Social Justice and Social Security Committee
Meeting date: 9 June 2022
Paul McLennan
Do not answer if you do not want to.
Social Justice and Social Security Committee
Meeting date: 9 June 2022
Paul McLennan
You have already touched on how uncertainty will be reduced as benefits are launched. We have seen what has happened since December, and Dame Susan has talked about how things have changed. With regard to the point that the convener made—and as far as our own analysis is concerned—what should be the feed-in time in that respect? If we are talking about how things have changed, how early should this committee be engaging with the Scottish Fiscal Commission in that process instead of these things coming almost as a shock to us? Should we be engaging earlier on the impact of such changes? Even from December to June, the situation has changed quite substantially. My question, therefore, is more about the process: should we have been engaging with you earlier rather than at this stage? You have indicated that uncertainty has increased since then, but at what point should we be analysing the situation and working with the Scottish Fiscal Commission on these matters?
Social Justice and Social Security Committee
Meeting date: 9 June 2022
Paul McLennan
You touched on the inflationary outlook. I do not think that anybody would have forecast that it would go up to 9 per cent, even with some of the geopolitical events that have been going on. That is higher than previous forecasts. This is a crystal ball question: where do you see inflation going? When the issue was discussed on Radio 4 this morning, various factors were mentioned. It was asked whether the current high inflation was a blip or something that would be around for the next year or two. There are the food supply issues and so on.
Where do you see inflation going? I know that it is hard to give an answer that you could be held to, but do you think that inflation will peak in the next year or two, or do you see it continuing to be an issue beyond then?
Social Justice and Social Security Committee
Meeting date: 9 June 2022
Paul McLennan
We will have to be very much aware of that.