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Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 23 August 2025
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Displaying 1691 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Circular Economy (Scotland) Bill: Financial Memorandum

Meeting date: 24 October 2023

Michelle Thomson

Good morning. Thank you for all the information that you have given so far. The session has brought out the considerable uncertainty about and complexity of what we are doing.

As the convener has pointed out, an FM should show the margins of uncertainty for any estimate. I often search for key words to get a picture. There is not any particular disclaimer of uncertainty but, if you search for the word “range” and look at the ranges, you will see that the ranges are vast in the estimates. Some of the figures for regulation range from £30,000 to £200,000. Basically, the bigger the range, the higher the uncertainty and the less accurate the estimate. I want to get your sense of that from a confidence point of view. A lot of information has come out this morning but, in addition to what you have already said, are there any particular areas where the range of estimate expressing uncertainty is so utterly huge as to be worth not very much at all?

Charlie Devine, you smiled at me, so you can go first.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Circular Economy (Scotland) Bill: Financial Memorandum

Meeting date: 24 October 2023

Michelle Thomson

I have probably made my point about the vast ranges. Both Charlie Devine and Jim Jack alluded to behavioural changes, and that is the element of uncertainty in the bill.

I want to pick up on something that my colleague John Mason asked about earlier. He used the terminology “good” and “bad”, but I am going to make it a little more academic and ask how much confidence you have in the estimates on a scale of zero to 10, where zero is no confidence and 10 is high confidence. I think that I can fairly reflect that you have expressed considerable uncertainty about what they mean for you, so this is not meant to be about apportioning blame; I am just trying to reflect where we are in the process. What number would each of you give for the FM where zero is “nul points”, literally, and 10 is a high degree of confidence?

10:45  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Circular Economy (Scotland) Bill: Financial Memorandum

Meeting date: 24 October 2023

Michelle Thomson

Is that a four, then, to be specific?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Circular Economy (Scotland) Bill: Financial Memorandum

Meeting date: 24 October 2023

Michelle Thomson

Exactly—that is why I am asking for a number.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Circular Economy (Scotland) Bill: Financial Memorandum

Meeting date: 24 October 2023

Michelle Thomson

You have led me on to my final question. In an ideal world, where would we go from here, recognising all the evidence that you have given this morning? In relation to co-design, which the convener mentioned earlier, what would you ideally like to happen to get to something that will up those scores, whereby we can all have more confidence in the FM?

I fully accept the different points that you have made about uncertainty, the complexity of this work and the role of councils. Fundamentally, do we need a continued exercise of co-design and the production of an updated FM, or are you happy for the extra work to slip under secondary legislation? If you had a choice, which approach would you choose and why?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Circular Economy (Scotland) Bill: Financial Memorandum

Meeting date: 24 October 2023

Michelle Thomson

That is an option.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Circular Economy (Scotland) Bill: Financial Memorandum

Meeting date: 24 October 2023

Michelle Thomson

Do you have a final comment, Jim?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Circular Economy (Scotland) Bill: Financial Memorandum

Meeting date: 24 October 2023

Michelle Thomson

Charlie and Jim, what numbers would you give?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Sustainability of Scotland’s Finances

Meeting date: 3 October 2023

Michelle Thomson

Yes, I can understand that. The Fraser of Allander Institute’s paper sets out anticipated effects. As you said, the methodology that it is using will be the same as that of the Scottish Fiscal Commission. My wider concern is around perception. It is extraordinarily difficult—probably impossible—to work out some scenarios properly, but there will be a perception linked to what, in my view, is a relatively low committed spend to entrepreneurs, for example, of only £15 million, although, of course, we have not seen the budget. It is about the wider picture.

Again, it is this same question: what reflections have you made on the perception of people, businesses and investors? I accept that the foreign direct investment stats are very strong—we agree on that—but we are trying to predict how behaviours might change as a result of policy decisions. We have to compare apples with apples, as the convener said. Do you think that the perception, rightly or wrongly, that Scotland is a higher tax environment will play into investment decisions? How are you reflecting on that perception in your decisions on tax rises?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Sustainability of Scotland’s Finances

Meeting date: 3 October 2023

Michelle Thomson

Sorry to interrupt, Deputy First Minister. I suspect that I will strongly agree with what you are going to say. My question, if I have not been clear, was, given the scale of the estate that you have outlined, do you have a worked-up programme in the Government to address that issue? I think that we are all agreed on the scale of the challenge and on the benefits therein. I fully understand your position, but there is a need to move to having something substantive—to have at least a framework—to operate to.