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If one had to put a wee bet on it, the evidence suggests that the constrained environment for public services will continue. To me, that suggests that there is a greater need to do something like that, because it is about fiscal sustainability.

My next question is on social security spend, which is another area where there are concerns about long-term affordability and sustainability. Ironically enough, having raised the point about the longer-term picture, I saw when I read through the response that it deliberately referenced

“monitoring all areas of expenditure during the year”.

That is exactly not what the point is; the point is that, when we extrapolate the numbers, we see that it is not sustainable, particularly given that it is a demand-led area. Therefore, regardless of whether the approach is responsible and capable, the point is that you are looking at expenditure only in-year. As a result, I was surprised by that response.

This ties in with earlier comments about the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s report on sustainability, but do you recognise the very real concern that, when we ask about the long term, your answer that you will take a responsible approach in-year does not provide confidence? That is the issue. Arguably, we have been taking a responsible approach in-year, every single year, but that is not the issue—the issue is the projection that has concerned the committee so much.

Exactly. Having such a discussion and fleshing out the position of all the political parties could be helpful.

My next question comes on the back of the convener’s comments about single-year versus multiyear funding and what the Scottish Fiscal Commission had to say about that in its fiscal sustainability report. Does the Scottish Government collect any statistics on the sunk costs of doing all the monitoring and assessment on a year-by-year basis? It strikes me that that is not only inefficient but extremely expensive. Do you collect any stats on that? In effect, it is money lost.

Thank you.

It strikes me that it would be helpful to look at that in a quantitative as well as a qualitative way, because it exemplifies the inefficiency that plays into some of our other costs.

I have previously asked about the ScotWind funding. To be honest, I was a wee bit disappointed when I read the Scottish Government’s response to the relevant part of our report. It said:

“Consideration will be given to how future revenues will be deployed.”

The point that I was trying to make was that I do not want consideration to be given to how future revenues will be deployed. First, I want there to be recognition of the importance of setting up a sovereign wealth fund. Secondly, I want consideration to be given to costs, implications and process. Thirdly, I want a specific commitment to be made that fiscal rules will be set.

Although I accept that you cannot bind your successors, I would like to hear a commitment that, this session, you will set aside, say, 5 per cent of all moneys. That would recognise the revenue challenges that you face today and also look to the longer term to provide the building blocks for fiscal sustainability. Will you comment on the response that I highlighted, as it strikes me that it misses the point altogether?

We have had some discussions with the Government around the nature of risk. I made an observation on that when we were going through the Gender Recognition Reform (Scotland) Bill. According to the evidence that I saw, risk assessment concerned the probability of a risk occurring but not the impact, if it occurred. Can you reassure me that the risk assessment has been done with the academic rigour that you would want to see?

I raised with the Government the possibility of the situation that we found ourselves in with Isla Bryson, before it occurred, and I said that, although the probability of such a risk occurring was low, the impact, should such a situation arise, would be extraordinarily high. I cannot say that I was happy to be proven right.

It is a matter of disaggregating probability and impact. Can the minister reassure us that that technical approach is being followed and is embedded among all service providers?

My ears pricked up when you mentioned the Finance and Public Administration Committee, which I am a fellow member of. I do not recall evidence being brought to bear that backs up your assertion, although I do not doubt what you said. Will you help me to recall that?

You cannot introduce yet another cliff edge, on top of the UK Government one.

To go back to a comment that was alluded to by the convener earlier, our specific challenge in this committee is to take a view on the financial memorandum as presented. The questioning thus far has brought out a significant number of areas where there is uncertainty on costs, and we have covered a lot of them. We know that standing orders set some rules around the production of financial memorandums including on the best estimates, costs and savings and so on, and also on indicating the margins of uncertainty and a range of costs. Therefore, when I looked at the FM, given all the things that have been brought out thus far, such as the lack of consideration for future inflation and certain areas being missing, I was surprised to see that all the costs appear to be fixed costs. What was the rationale for not including ranges that would give an indication of certainty or otherwise?

Do you understand the point that I am making about the role of the committee members? For the reasons that you have set out, there is a question as to how confident we can be in the numbers, as presented. I have asked this question of witnesses before. On a scale of zero to 10, where zero is no confidence and 10 is absolute confidence, what number would you give me specifically on the FM, as presented today?