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Displaying 2063 contributions
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 24 October 2023
Michelle Thomson
I put the same question to Kirsty McGuire and Jim Jack. What do you think should happen now to move us on from where we are, in terms of co-design or secondary legislation?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 24 October 2023
Michelle Thomson
Okay—thank you.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 24 October 2023
Michelle Thomson
Good morning. Thank you for all the information that you have given so far. The session has brought out the considerable uncertainty about and complexity of what we are doing.
As the convener has pointed out, an FM should show the margins of uncertainty for any estimate. I often search for key words to get a picture. There is not any particular disclaimer of uncertainty but, if you search for the word “range” and look at the ranges, you will see that the ranges are vast in the estimates. Some of the figures for regulation range from £30,000 to £200,000. Basically, the bigger the range, the higher the uncertainty and the less accurate the estimate. I want to get your sense of that from a confidence point of view. A lot of information has come out this morning but, in addition to what you have already said, are there any particular areas where the range of estimate expressing uncertainty is so utterly huge as to be worth not very much at all?
Charlie Devine, you smiled at me, so you can go first.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 24 October 2023
Michelle Thomson
I have probably made my point about the vast ranges. Both Charlie Devine and Jim Jack alluded to behavioural changes, and that is the element of uncertainty in the bill.
I want to pick up on something that my colleague John Mason asked about earlier. He used the terminology “good” and “bad”, but I am going to make it a little more academic and ask how much confidence you have in the estimates on a scale of zero to 10, where zero is no confidence and 10 is high confidence. I think that I can fairly reflect that you have expressed considerable uncertainty about what they mean for you, so this is not meant to be about apportioning blame; I am just trying to reflect where we are in the process. What number would each of you give for the FM where zero is “nul points”, literally, and 10 is a high degree of confidence?
10:45Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 24 October 2023
Michelle Thomson
Is that a four, then, to be specific?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 24 October 2023
Michelle Thomson
Exactly—that is why I am asking for a number.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 24 October 2023
Michelle Thomson
You have led me on to my final question. In an ideal world, where would we go from here, recognising all the evidence that you have given this morning? In relation to co-design, which the convener mentioned earlier, what would you ideally like to happen to get to something that will up those scores, whereby we can all have more confidence in the FM?
I fully accept the different points that you have made about uncertainty, the complexity of this work and the role of councils. Fundamentally, do we need a continued exercise of co-design and the production of an updated FM, or are you happy for the extra work to slip under secondary legislation? If you had a choice, which approach would you choose and why?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 24 October 2023
Michelle Thomson
That is an option.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 24 October 2023
Michelle Thomson
Do you have a final comment, Jim?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 24 October 2023
Michelle Thomson
Charlie and Jim, what numbers would you give?