Seòmar agus comataidhean

First, I apologise for being late. I will not blame the buses or the trains. I am sorry that I missed the first couple of minutes of questions and answers, and I hope that I will not duplicate anything that was said then.

In the foreword to your report, you go over the timescales for this year’s forecast, and you make the point that it has been a little different from normal. It took, I think, 16 weeks instead of the usual 10. Can you confirm whether we are now where we would have been had we not had all the changes of Government and so on? Have they had a material impact on your forecasts?

You make the point that the tax burden will rise from 33.1 per cent to 37.1 per cent of GDP. I am interested in your use of the word “burden”. It suggests a slightly negative connotation, which I am not sure that you intended. How does that figure compare with the position in other countries, particularly in Europe? Is it much the same?

That was very helpful. It has also been mentioned that the debt stock has a historically short average maturity. Why is that? My understanding is that that makes it more susceptible to interest rate changes.

We have met various people over the past few weeks, and a subject that we discussed with some people with experience is early retirement. There seems to be quite a mixed picture in that regard. There are clearly some professional people with good pensions who, in their mid-50s or at 60, feel that they want a different work-life balance and take retirement. However, that means that the economy loses their experience and their energy—at least in paid employment; they may be doing other things.

Do we just accept that people in that group have gone and we cannot do anything about it, or should we be trying to bring some of them back into the labour market?

You have given me a few answers, so I could ask 20 supplementary questions. I will take the issue of training as an example, because one person who spoke to the committee told us that they felt that, as they got older, their employer was less and less willing to send them on training courses and therefore their information technology skills were not up to speed. The thought of going back to that might be difficult, especially for someone who has had a break for a couple of years during Covid. What you said about Age Scotland working with employers to do a bit more on training older workers is encouraging. Do you think that the issue is widespread?

I have slipped just beyond the 50 to 64 age group.

You mentioned flexible working once or twice, but we have had a mixed picture from witnesses. We have heard some good examples. There was a young guy who had health issues who works for Tesco. He cannot handle big crowds, so his employer has got him working at night. That struck me as good, and he is really happy about that. However, we heard from an older lady who had had a break from work—I am not sure whether she was furloughed—and who, as a result of health issues, being older and perhaps having caring responsibilities, wanted to go back to work in a slightly more flexible way than she had worked previously. However, her employer—I cannot remember whether she worked in the private or the public sector; it might have been the public sector, actually—was totally inflexible. Basically, the employer said that she had to come back 9 to 5, or whatever the equivalent was. Can the Government do more on that, or is it really just up to individual employers?

Yes. When you say “fair work”, the thing that jumps to mind for most people is a living wage, but it is correct to say that fair work includes quite a lot more than that, including flexibility.

Another group to consider is people with fluctuating conditions that mean one day they will feel good and can work eight hours, but on another day they will not feel so good. We have had evidence that, in some sectors, it is easier for employers to be supportive. If a person is doing office work, it does not matter whether they do all of their work on Tuesday or they do all of it on Wednesday, but if they are serving in a restaurant they have to be there on certain days. Is it more difficult for some sectors to be flexible?

Another group to consider is those who already have a long-term disability or who have health issues because of Covid, who are very nervous about going back to work and being with a lot of people. I guess that it could be difficult for employers to be able to adapt to that.

I am still slightly puzzled, but I accept that there is not a clear-cut answer.

Liz Smith asked about the prices of gas and food and what was driving inflation. Can we compare the situation here with that in other countries? Are other countries—western countries, especially—in much the same position? Are there differences in the inflation level in neighbouring or similar countries, or in the reasons for inflation?